德银-亚太地区-石油与天然气行业-2018亚太能源展望：增长与规律间的平衡

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1、2018APACEnergyOutlookDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateAustralasia3January2018Japan2018APACEnergyEnergyOutlookInitiationofCoverageOil&GasBalancingactbetweengrowthanddisciplineJohnsonWanThereturnofE&Pandcapexnames.R&Cprolongedpeakcycle+852-22036163Weenter2

2、018cautiouslyoptimisticthattherewillbeoutperformanceinEnergyequitiesfollowingthreeyearsofunderperformancesincetheoilpriceVitusLeungcollapse.APACenergycompanieshavehadtheirfairshareofpainbutwe+852-22036158believetheworstisbehindusandbusinesseshavebeenreconfiguredtow

3、orkeveninac.USD40-50/bbloilpriceenvironment.AstheforwardcurvenowJohnHirjeemarchesconvincinglyintobackwardation,thereareincreasingupsideriskstooil,+61-3-9270-4318underpinnedbystrongdemandgrowthfromemergingAPACcountriesandtheglobalrebalancingofcrudemarkets.Underrisi

4、ngoil,thereispressureonChinaHarshadKatkarandIndiatorevivetheirdecliningoilproductionwhichispositiveforbothE&P+91-22-7180-4029and,particularly,capex-relatedcompanies.WidespreadadoptionofgasthroughWattanaPunyawattanakulaggressivecoaltogasswitchingprogramshasledtoawi

5、ntergascrisisinChina.DeutscheTISCOInvestmentAdvisoryCo.LtdWenotethetimingcouldnothavecomeanybetterforAustralianLNGexporters+66-2-6336464asthemarketturnstoaseller'smarketfromabuyer'smarketin2018.AriSaludOperatingefficienciesandcapitaldisciplineleadingtohigherreturnsD

6、eutscheRegisPartners,Inc.Between2009and2014,oilpriceswentfromUSD57/bbltoUSD100/bblbutROEs+63-2-8946679forthesectoractuallyfellfrom14%to11%.WebelievethedaysofbloatedcostsandexpensiveM&Aarenowover.ThereisincreasingevidencethatabalanceHanyuZhangbetweengrowthandcapita

7、ldisciplinecanactuallybeachieved,whichwould+852-22036207convinceinvestorstoreturntotheenergyspace.Forstarters,overthenextfewyearscashreturnstoinvestorsaresettoreturntothoseseenatthetimeoftheGrantSwanepoelpeakoilpricelevelsin2013and2014.FCFgenerationshouldalsobeint

8、hebestCraigsInvestmentPartnersshapeithasbeeninitshistory,morethandoublethelevelsseenin2009.This+64-9-926-2243isallusingtheDBoildeckofUSD53.4/54.5/56/bbl