德银-中国-制造业-中国箱板纸：进口occ污染物上限下调至0.5%？2018年利润进一步压缩

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1、ChinaContainerboardDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina20November2017ChinaIndustrialsManufacturingContainerboardBreakingNewsImportedOCCcontaminantscapcutto0.5%?Furthermarginsqueezein2018JohnsonWanChinaintendstoreviseOCCcontaminantthresholdto

2、0.5%ResearchAnalystAccordingtotheBureauofInternationalRecycling(BIR),onNovember15,ChinanotifiedtheWTOthatitintendstocontrolthepercentageofcontaminantsin+852-22036163importedOCCto0.5%withnewrulesduetobepublishedonDecember31,Toppicks2017andimplementationon

3、March1,2018.(See"EnvironmentalProtectionNineDragonsPaperSellControlStandardforImportedSolidWastesasRawMaterials-WasteandScrap(2689.HK),HKD12.80ofPaperorPaperboard(GB16487.4-2017".)ThecontaminantspercentageforLee&ManPaper(2314.HK),HKD8.86HoldimportedOCCi

4、scurrently1.5%,basedonChineseregulationspublishedin2005,Source:DeutscheBankbutwasrevisedto0.3%intheinitialdraftreleasedinAugust2017;however,Companiesfeaturedsuchstringentrequirementsgeneratedmanyprotestsglobally.TheprotestsledNineDragonsPaper(2689.HK),H

5、KD12.80SelltospeculationthatChinawouldrevisethepercentageto1%,butthisappearsto2017A2018E2019Ehaveindeedjustbeenspeculation.Iftherearenofurtherchangestothe0.5%P/E(x)6.66.911.3standard,whichdiffersalotfromwhatiscurrentlyfollowedbyglobalrecyclingEV/EBITDA(x

6、)6.26.07.8communities,thiscouldleadtoasignificantcostpushtoChinesepaperproducersPrice/book(x)1.41.41.4sincetheywillbeforcedtousemoreexpensivehigherimportedOCCgrades.Lee&ManPaper(2314.HK),HKD8.86HoldWhileacostpushnormallysuggestshigherdomesticpaperprices,

7、Chinaalready2016A2017E2018Eboaststhemostexpensivepaperpricesglobally,sofurtherpriceshikesshouldP/E(x)8.97.29.1notbeexpected.Onthecontrary,thiscreatesanopportunityformorefinishedEV/EBITDA(x)8.56.67.7paperimportsintoChinain2018.Price/book(x)1.61.91.7Source

8、:DeutscheBankImportedOCCpricesstructurallyhigherforChinesemillsWhiletheOCCcontaminantsthresholdhasyettobedetermined,weknowthatimportedOCCwillneedtobeofahigherqualitygoingforward,becausetheimportof“unsortedwastepaper”willalsobeban