德银-中国-制造业-中国箱板纸：为什么春节的生产中断不会拯救2018年的纸价？-

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1、ChinaContainerboardDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina30November2017ChinaIndustrialsManufacturingContainerboardMarketUpdateWhyproductionhaltsinCNYwillnotrescuepaperpricesin2018JohnsonWan2018CNYproductionhaltsunlikelytoworkthistimeResearchAnalystAlongwiththecollapse

2、incontainerboardpricesthisweek,downRMB150/tWoW,totallingRMB1,825or29%sinceNov1,NDPhasrolledoutproduction+852-22036163haltplansinabidtoboostdownstreamrestockingtorescuethepricecollapseToppicksHowever,weareskepticalthatthesametrickthatworkedinJan/Feb2017willNineDragonsPaperSellwo

3、rkagaininJan/Feb2018.ReiterateSELLonNDPwithTPofHKD10.98and(2689.HK),HKD12.76HoldonLMPwithTPofHKD8.3/sh.Source:DeutscheBankCompaniesfeatured■First,theupcomingChineseNewYear("CNY")ismuchlaterin2018onNineDragonsPaper(2689.HK),HKD12.76SellFeb16comparedwithJan28in2017,withthebulkofp

4、roductionhalts2017A2018E2019EconcentratedpostFeb13.ThatstillleavesthreemonthsofinventoryP/E(x)6.66.911.2buildsfromNov'17tomid-Feb18.WearealsoheadedtoaslowseasonEV/EBITDA(x)6.26.07.8fordemand.Price/book(x)1.41.41.3LeeManPaper(2314.HK),HKD9.04Hold■Second,inventorylevelsfordownstr

5、eamdistributorsandboxmakers2016A2017E2018EwerelessthanonemonthinNov16andthreemonthsintotalnow(1.5P/E(x)8.97.49.3monthsatdistributorsand1.5monthsatboxboardandboxmakers).EV/EBITDA(x)8.56.77.8Therefore,thereisnoneedforBoxmakerstorestockbeforeCNYsincePrice/book(x)1.61.91.7theystill

6、haveplentyofstockonhand.Source:DeutscheBank■Third,blendedpricesforimportedcontainerboardcontinuetobec.USD137/tor19%cheaperthanChinesedomesticpaperpricessoanyrestockingbydownstreamshouldbedoneviaimports.■Lastly,therewere3mtofnewadditionsin2H17and4.6mtforFY2017leavingmorechoicesf

7、ordownstreamboxmakerstoshoparoundforthebestpricesAsleadingpapermillscontinuetheiraggressiveproductionhaltplans,theycontinuetolosemarketsharetomediumsizedandsmallpapermillswhichhavenointentiontohaltproduction.Wewroteinourreport"Asgoodasitgets;reiteratingSellonNDP"onNov17thatNDPa

8、ndLMPwouldlosec.2.5%marketsharein2017.Marginscontract3