德银-中国-制造业-中国箱板纸：尽善尽美，重申出售ndp

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1、ChinaContainerboardDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina17November2017ChinaIndustrialsManufacturingContainerboardIndustryUpdateAsgoodasitgets;reiteratingSellonNDPJohnsonWanBubblehasburstbuthowbaddoesitget?ResearchAnalystPaperpriceshavedefiedourexpectationsinthelastsixmonths,butwebelievethe

2、yarenotsustainableandtheturningpointisnow.Withtheendof"singlesday"+852-22036163orpeakseason,Chinacontainerboardpriceshavecomecrashingdown,fallingKeyChangesbyRMB1200/tor19%inthelasttwoweeks.AggressiveinventoryrestockingCompanyTargetPriceRatingduringSep-OctbydownstreamboxmakershasoverdrawnevenDec-Jan1

3、8paper2314.HK8.06to8.30-demand,andaweaker-than-expectedNov11shoppingseasondidnothelpeither.2689.HK7.00to10.98-Papermillsarenowpanickingtodestockoninventorybuilds,andaretryingtoSource:DeutscheBankfendoffthesurgeinimportsatthesametime,kickingoffadestockingcyclebyToppicksdownstreamdistributorsandboxboard

4、makersaswell.PricesshouldcontinueNineDragonsPaperSelltofallinthecomingmonths,asclearingup3-4monthsofinventoriesinthe(2689.HK),HKD13.40systemwilltaketime.Thepricecutsarealsoeatingintomargins,withNDP'sNP/Source:DeutscheBanktshrinkingfromRMB1,100/tinearlyNovtoRMB500-600/trecently.OurrecentCompaniesfeat

5、uredsupplychecksalsorevealedaverygrimsupply-demandsituationinthemediumLeeManPaper(2314.HK),HKD9.01Holdterm,with22.6mtofnewsupplyadditions(or47%of2017demand)between2016A2017E2018E2017-2020,exacerbatedbyrecordmarginsinthelast12months.Therefore,2017P/E(x)8.97.49.2willlikelygodownasthebestyearforpaperan

6、dasnewsupplyentersthemarketEV/EBITDA(x)8.56.77.8inthenextfewyears,marginswillinevitablybesqueezed.WereiterateourSellPrice/book(x)1.61.91.7onNDPwithaTPofHKD10.98/shandourHoldonLMPwithaTPofHKD8.30/sh.NineDragonsPaper(2689.HK),HKD13.40Sell2017A2018E2019ESupply-demandtoworsen;utilizationratestogofrom88%

7、in2017to75%byP/E(x)6.67.311.82020EV/EBITDA(x)6.26.28.1Explosiveearningsin2017willhavelastingeffectsintheyearstocome,asPrice/book(x)1.41.51.4weexpectgrosssupplygrowthof8.9%/17.4%/8.5%/5.3%for2017/18/19/