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1、19October2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchStrategyJump-StartResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYManishNigam85221017067Jump-Startaimstoprovideyouwithasummaryoftheweekthatwasandhelpsyoupreparemanish.nigam@credit-suisse.comfortheweekaheadwitharesultscalendar,economicforecastsandvalu
2、ationsummaries.ConnectingclientstocorporatesAsiaTechnologyStrategy–BuildinginloweriPhoneshipmentnumbers.Webuildintoournumberstheimpactoftheshipment-relatedissuesoniPhoneXin2017andtheimpactofThematicTriphigherASPsonlikelytotalunitshipmentsforiPhonesin2018.Our2017/1
3、8unitestimatesareCIC:ChinaMacroTourEnginesoutsidetheloweredto217/233mnunitsfromourpreviouslypublishedestimateinMay-17of223/248mn.metropolisesWearealsobuildingintheimpactofsuchcutsintoestimatesforkeyiPhonecomponentsDate25-27October,Hefei,Wuhu,Nanjingsuppliers.These
4、changes,atthisstage,onlycapturethedirectimpactofunitcutsandnottheAnalystVincentChan/ShenHusecondaryimpactonpricing/marginsasaresultoftheexcesscapacityinthesystem,providingdownsiderisk.Ontheotherhand,ifiPhonecustomersprovetobepriceinelastic,CIC:MacauGamingTourDate3
5、0October,Macauunitestimatescouldseeupside.(Link)AnalystKennethFongIndonesiaCoalSector–Peakcoal:Isthistheendofthecycle?Short-termbrisk,long-CIC:CLPPowerStationVisittermrisk.AsweheadintowinterwithlowcoalstocklevelsinChinaandIndia,coalpriceisDate31October,HongKonglik
6、elytostaywellbidinto4Q17.However,webelieveChinaisonthewaytobringingdownAnalystDaveDaidomesticcoalprice(QHD)inthemediumterm,andreducingitsdependenceoncoalintheCICShenzhenAutoDealerTourlongterm.SectorP/EsarecloselylinkedtocoalpriceandwealsoexpectearningstoshrinkinDa
7、te31October,ShenzhenFY18andFY19.Alowermultipleandfallinprofitssupportourcaseforunderperformance.AnalystBinWangWealsobelievethattheoverwhelminglypositiveprofileofsell-siderecommendationsCICChinaTechTourhighlightsthepositioningriskinayearwhereearningsarepeaking.(Lin
8、k)Date31October,ShenzhenAsiaPacificEquityStrategy–WithMSCIAsiaex-Japanapproachingthe2007high,AnalystSamLi/KynaWongwhatdovaluationslooklike?WithMSCIAsiae
