瑞信-美国-股票策略-美国股票策略：技术加持

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1、20November2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchStrategyU.S.EquityStrategyResearchAnalystsECONOMICSANDSTRATEGYJonathanGolub,CFA2123256239jonathan.golub@credit-suisse.comTECH+PlusPatrickPalfrey2123257970OnOctober9,wepublishedoursectorviewswithanOverweighton

2、Techandpatrick.palfrey@credit-suisse.comInternetRetail.Thisnotedetailsourconstructiveviewonthesegroups.ManishBangard,CFA2123256632TECH+TriplesMarketPerformancemanish.bangard@credit-suisse.comTechandInternetRetailstocks(TECH+)havereturned88%sincetheDanaNenti

3、n,CFAbeginningof2014versus26%fortheS&P500ex-TECH+.Importantly,a2125385287dana.nentin@credit-suisse.comsmallerpercentageofTECH+returnshavecomefrommultiplesthantheEricaCidbroadmarket(38%vs.46%).2125388148erica.cid@credit-suisse.comTECH+ValuationsNotaConcernDe

4、spitestrongergrowth,TECH+tradesonly2.8xmultiplepointsabovetheS&P500(20.6xvs.17.8x).Thiscomparestoa20.2xpointpremiumforTechinDec.1999.TECH+LessRiskythaninthePastPricevolatilityforTECH+stockshasdeclinedmorethananyothersectoroverthepast20years.Thegroupislessec

5、onomicallysensitivethanothercyclicalgroupsanddeployslessfinancialleverage.TECH+profitabilityisgreaterthantheS&P500’sandhassubstantiallyimprovedsincethelate1990s.MuchStrongerFundamentalsthanOtherSectorsTECH+revenuesandearningslookparticularlyattractiveonboth

6、aforwardandtrailingbasis.Thegrouphasalsoexperiencedimpressiverevisionsoverthepast3months.Importantly,thisisbeingexperiencedacrosssubgroups.Figure1:ReturnDecomposition(2014-Present)TECH+S&P500ex-TECH+Return87.8%Return26.2%ContributionContributionP/EP/E38%46%

7、EPS54%EPS62%NoteTECH+includesInternetRetailfromConsumerDiscretionarySource:Standard&Poor’s,FactSet,CreditSuisseDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisc

8、losure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Invest