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1、8April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、ChinaChinaEquityStrategyStrongerheadwindbutplentyofpolicytoolsStrategy
3、StrategyResearchAnalystsFigure1:FiscalstimuluspackagesreleasedbyvariouseconomiessofarEdmondHuang85221016701edmond.huang@credit-suisse.comColinMcCallu
4、m,CA85221016514colin.mccallum@credit-suisse.comBinWang85221016702Source:Governmentwebsites,mediareports(e.g.,Congress.gov)bin.wang@credit-suisse.comThespateofdownwardrevisioncontinuesasthecoronavirusisspreadingglobally,withGaryZhou,CFACSChina2020GDPcuttwic
5、einaweekalongwiththeUS.Chinaismaneuveringfroma85221016648relativelydisciplinedpolicyapproachinitiallytomorefiscalandmonetarypolicies.Wegary.zhou@credit-suisse.combelievethatthePBoCwillmakemoreRRRcuts(150bpforrestoftheyear)andKynaWongMLF&LPRcuts(50bpbyendof
6、thisyear).Chinacanraiseceilingoffiscaldeficitabove852210169503%ifandwhennecessary,andhaspledgedtoissuespecialtreasurybonds,thefirsttimekyna.wong@credit-suisse.cominthepast13years,withlikelyRmb0.5-1tnquotatoboostinfrastructureinvestment.ZhaoZhangIfwenormali
7、senewconfirmedcasesaroundtheperiodofseniorofficialreshuffleinHubei,85221016915Chinaisatleasttwomonthsaheadofrestoftheworld.MSCIChina/CSI300havezhao.zhang@credit-suisse.comcorrectedaround10%eachin2020,havingoutperformedUSmarkets.CSI300,SHCOMHuShenandCHINEXT
8、havearangeof0.2-0.35long-termcorrelationwithDJI/SPX/NASDAQ,85221016540giventhedifferenceingrowthprofile,fundingcost,riskappetiteandinvestorstructure.hu.shen@credit-suisse.comEarningsrevisionacrossHongKongandChinamarkethasbeeninadowntrendsinceWentingYuMarch
9、2019.MSCIChina/HSI/CSI300haveseencutsby7%/10%/2%for2020EPS85221016235and5%/8%/2%for2021EPS.Aftertherecentcorrection,valuationofbothMSCIChinawenting.yu@credit-suisse.comandCSI300appearsundemandingwithP/Btradingbelowhistoricalaverage,1.34xand1.48x,respective
10、ly.MSCIChinaandCSI300arecurrentlytradingat10.8xand11.1xP/E,DanielCuilowerthanaverageof11.6xand15.1x.Incontrast,HSIandHSCEIarebothatthetrough85221016523daniel.cui@credit-suisse.comvaluation,at0.96x/0.72xP/Bor9
