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ID:8225295
大小:2.06 MB
页数:44页
时间:2018-03-10
《德银-亚洲-宏观经济-亚洲经济月报:推动渐进加息》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsDate10November2017AsiaEconomicsMonthlyPushforgradualratehikesWiththenegativeoutputgapclosing,EMAsiacentralbanksarelikelytooptKaushikDasformoderateratehikesahead–generallylessaggressivelythantheFed.ChiefEconomist(+91)227180490
2、9China:Our2017GDPgrowthforecastis0.1pptshighernowat6.8%.Presidentkaushik.das@db.comXi’slong-termviewonChinafocusesmoreonthequalityofgrowthratherthanthespeed,whichwethinkisappropriate.WeexpecttheleaderssettheJulianaLeegrowthtargetfor2018moreflexibly,andgrowth
3、willslowto6.3%.ChiefEconomist(+852)22038312HongKong:Fiscalandmonetarypoliciesaremovinginoppositedirections.juliana.lee@db.comLastmonth’sPolicyAddressseemedtopromiseamoreexpansionaryfiscalpolicy.TheHKMAhas,temporarilywethink,suspendedliquiditydrainingMichaelS
4、pencer,PhDoperationsbutinterestratesaremostlikelytocontinuerisingthrough2019.ChiefEconomistIndia:AsequentialrecoveryingrowthfromJuly-Sep’17quarterislikely,with(+852)22038303themomentumimprovingfurtherin2HFY18,asthebaseeffectturnspositive.michael.spencer@db.c
5、omIndonesia:GDPgrowthisstableataboutitslong-runpotentialrate,despiteZhiweiZhang,PhDcuriouslyweakretailsalesgrowth.InflationislowenoughbuttheIDRChiefEconomistdepreciationrecentlyandrisingcrudeoilpricesposeupsiderisksthatwethink(+852)22038308willconvinceBItore
6、frainfromfurthereasing.zhiwei.zhang@db.comMalaysia:Recentdatasuggestupsideriskstoour2017GDPgrowthforecastbutalsotoourinflationforecast.CoreinflationremainslowenoughthatBNMneedbeinnohurrytoraiseinterestrates,butweexpectonehikenextyear.Philippines:Growthremain
7、sabovepotential,whichshouldpushinflationhighernextyear,causingBSPtostartraisingratesaroundmid-year.Inflationrisksaretotheupside.TableofContentsSingapore:StrongQ3outcomepushesupour2017and2018growthforecastAsiaOverviewPage03to2.9%and2.7%,respectively,settingth
8、estagefortighteningahead.ChinaPage04HongKongPage06SouthKorea:AverystrongfinishtoQ3pushesupour2017and2018GDPIndiaPage08growthforecastsby0.2ppts.WithChinademandposingfurtherupsideriskstoIndonesiaP
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