基于logit回归模型的我国上市公司财务困境预测实证.研究

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1、AbstractAbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofChina’Ssecuritiesmarket，thenumberoflistedcompanieshasincreasedyearbyyear．Themarketisalsogrowing，becomingthebackbonetopromoteeconomicgrowthandhasmadetremendouscontributionstotheChina’Snationaleconomy．Nevertheless，theperformanceofChina’Slistedco

2、mpanypolarizationtrendisstillevidentinparticular，butalsotofurtherexpand．Thenumberofthecompanyfallingintofinancialdistressisalsoincreasing．Withthegrowingnumberofthelistedcompaniesfallingintothefinancialdistress，investorsandcorporatemanagersrealizedthattheestablishmentofasensitiveearly

3、warningmechanismresponsetothefinancialdistresstoavoidtheriskofinvestmentintheChina'ssecuritiesmarketisurgent．Listedcompaniesfallingintofinancialdistressdonothappenedsuddenly，butagradualprocess，itisentirelypossibletodetectfinancialdistressbeforeithappenintheuseofeffectiveway．Forecastf

4、orlistedcompaniesinfinancialdistresshasbecometheproblemwhichinvestors，managersandsecuritiesregulatorsallconcernabout．Thepredictionofcorporatefinancialdistress，notonlyhavealonghistoryofresearchinforeigncountries，butalsohavegottenmatureresearchresults，establishedtherelativetheory，andno

5、wwidelybeenused．However，researchinthisareainourcountryisstillatitsbeginning．Thecollectionofdata，selectionofindicatorsandmethods，aswellastheultimatetestofthemodelisstillhavingmanydifferencesamongresearchers．Furthermore，mostoftheresearchresultsduetolackofpracticalapplicationneedfurther

6、test．Astheincreasingattentionbeingpaidtothefinancialdistress，manyscholarshavebeencommittedtothisresearch，buttherearestillsomeshortcomings：whenlookingforpredictivepoweroffinancialindicators，thescopeisnotenoughcomprehensive，justconcernedabouttheindicatorsofrepaymentability，profitabilit

7、y，capacitydevelopment，capacity-operation，neglectingofcashflowandownershipstructureindicators．基于Logit回归模型的我国上市公司财务困境预测实证研究Inthispaper,onthebasisofcomprehensive，in-depthstudyofdomesticandforeignlistedcompaniesfallingintofinancialdistressandtheresultsinthisarea，Isupposewhetherornotalist

8、edcompanywas