CS Global EQ Strategy 2014.pdf

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1、03December2013GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.com2014Outlook:Equities,RegionsandMacroMarinaPronina442078836476marina.pronina@credit-suisse.comMarkRichards442078836484mark.richards@credi

2、t-suisse.comSebastianRaedler442078887554sebastian.raedler@credit-suisse.comRobertGriffiths442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comNicolasWylenzek442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comSource:CreditSuisse■GlobalGDPgrowthissettoaccelerateto3.7%in2014from2.8%inQ32013–andinmostofthedev

3、elopedworldtheriskis,webelieve,totheupside.WeexpectUSbondyieldstorisefurtherandthedollartostrengthen,whilecommoditieslooksettocontinueunderperformingthecycle.Corporatedefaultratesareconsistentwithcreditspreadsremainingaroundcurrentlevels.■Westayoverweightequities–andraiseourend-2014targetontheS

4、&P500to1,960from1,900.QEhasmeantthattherearenocheapassetclasses–butequitiescontinuetolookattractiveinrelativeterms.Additionally,relativepositioning,excessliquidityandastabilisationinearningsrevisionsareallsupportive.■Onregions,wereduceourUKweightingfromoverweighttobenchmarkanddoubleouroverweigh

5、tofJapan.WestayoverweightContinentalEurope(butwithinEuropetakeFrancetounderweightfrombenchmark).WeremainbenchmarkGEM(butwithinaglobalcontextareoverweightKoreaandIndia)andunderweighttheUS.Note:TheseviewsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofCSAM.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXCONTAINSANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDTHE

6、STATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.FOROTHERIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,visithttps://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosuresorcall+1(877)291-2683USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffectth

7、eobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CREDITSUISSESECURITIESRESEARCH&ANALYTICSBEYONDINFORMATION™Client-DrivenSolutions,Insights,andAccess03December2013Tableofc