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ID:37374422
大小:1.81 MB
页数:9页
时间:2019-05-22
《圈闭含油气概率赋值标准及其在塔里木盆地的应用》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、学兔兔www.xuetutu.com天热气化第36卷第2期0IL&GASGEOLOGY2015年4月文章编号:0253—9985(2015)02—0330—09doi:10.11743/ogg20150219圈闭含油气概率赋值标准及其在塔里木盆地的应用李娜,闫相宾,蔡利学(中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083)摘要:圈闭含油气概率赋值标准是圈闭含油气性量化评价的基础,是勘探风险分析的重要内容。从圈闭成藏的地质过程出发,鉴于圈闭、充注、储集和保存4项成藏条件相互独立、缺一不可,因此采用这4项成藏条件作为主因子,并用其各自概率的乘积表示圈闭的含油气概率。对于纵向上由多
2、个目的层组成的圈闭,其含油气概率是指至少有一个层圈闭发现油气的概率。在不同类型油气藏成藏主控因素及不同地区风险关键因素分析的基础上,进一步细化4项主因子,分别提出了存在和有效两类子因子。根据木桶短板效应原理,提出若各子因子关键参数独立,则其关键参数发生概率相乘即为圈闭含油气概率;若子因子关键参数相关,则取风险最大者与其他子因子概率相乘表示圈闭的含油气概率。同时,根据资料的相关程度、丰富程度、控制程度和质量评价,建立了概率赋值原则以及4项主因子及其子因子概率赋值标准,并将含油气概率分为5级。圈闭的含油气概率越大,地质风险越低;反之亦然。该方法在塔里木盆地实际应用,取得较好效
3、果。关键词:概率因子;参数赋值;含油气概率;圈闭评价;塔里木盆地中图分类号:TEl22.3文献标识码:AAssignmentstandardforhydrocarbon-bearingprobabilityoftrapsanditsapplicationinTarimBasinLiNa,YanXiangbin,CaiLixue(PetroleumExplorationandProductionResearch[nstitute,SINOPEC,Beijing100083,China)Abstract:Assignmentstandardforhydrocarbon-bea
4、ringprobabilityoftrapsisthebasisofquantitativeassessmenthydro-carbonpotentialoftrapsandhasplayedaveryimportantroleinexplorationriskanalyses.Fourkeyreservoiringelementsincludingtrap,charging,reservoirandpreservationwerechosentobethemajorfactorstorepresenthydrocarbon—bearingprobabilitiesoft
5、rapswiththeproductsoftheirindividualprobabilities.Fortrapscomposedverticallyofseveraltargetre-servoirs,thehydrocarbon-bearingprobabilityreferstotheprobabilityoffoundingoilorgasinatleastonetargetreservoirofthetrap.Eachofthefourfactorswasfurtherdividedintotwosubfactors—occurrencesubfactoran
6、deffectivesubfaetor—basedondifferentreservoiringcontrollingmechanismsandriskanalysesofvariousoilorgasreservoirs.ByapplyingtheBarrelEffectprincipletoourcalculation,weproposedthatifallthekeyparametersofthesubfactorswereindependentfromoneanother,thenthehydrocarbon—bearingprobabilitywouldbeth
7、eproductofprobabilityofkeyparameters;ontheotherhand,ifthesubfactorswererelatedtooneanother,thentheprobabilitywouldbetheproductofprobabilityofkeyparameterwiththemaximumriskmultiplyingthatofothersubfactors.Basedontherelevance,availability,controllingle—velandqualityof
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