Comments and Discussion

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1、CommentsandDiscussionChristopherMayer:BeforereadingthispaperbyMargaretHwangSmithandGarySmith,IwouldhavethoughtthatalmostanypaperonwhichRobertShillerandIwerethediscussantswouldhavefallensomewherebetweenthetwoofusinitsjudgmentonwhetherahousingbubbleexistsintheUnitedStatestoday.Irecentlywrote

2、apaperwithCharlesHimmelbergandToddSinaithatarguesthatthereisnotahousingbubbleinmostmetro-politanmarkets,andthatthecostofhousinginmostmarketsisclosetoitstwenty-five-yearaverage.1Shiller,incontrast,hasbeenoutspokenaboutthepossibilityofahousingbubble.Itturnsout,however,thatShillerandIdonotspan

3、thespectrumofviewsonthisissue:theevidenceinthispapersuggeststhathousinginmanypartsofthecountryremainscheap.Aftertherecentlongandpronouncedrun-upinprices,Iamsurprisedbythisconclusion.Thequestionisoneofbotheconomicimportanceandsocialinterest.AnyarticleinanysectionofTheNewYorkTimesorTheWallSt

4、reetJour-nalthathastheword“housing”inthetitlewilllikelybethetope-mailedarticleoftheday.Evenanop-edonhousingthatIpublishedinTheWallStreetJournalturnedouttobethetope-mailedarticlethatday.ThreeyearsagoKarlCaseandShillerusedaLexis-Nexissearchtodemonstratethattheuseofthewords“housingbubble”and“

5、housingboom”hadreachedrecordhighsinmajormediapublications.2Andthingshavebecomecra-ziersincethen.1.Himmelberg,Mayer,andSinai(2005).2.CaseandShiller(2003).5152BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1:2006Sohowdoesoneknowifthere’sahousingbubble?Incorporatefinance,wheredataaremuchmorereadilyavailabl

6、ethanforsingle-familyhouses,researchersdeterminewhetherthevalueofafirmisreflectedinitsstockpricebycomparingthelattertothenetpresentvalueofprojectedearnings,dividends,orcashflow.Ofcourse,economistsargueoverwhatistherightmeasureofcashflowandtherightdiscountrate,howtheriskpremiumvariesovertime,an

7、dsoforth.Butthebasicconceptofdiscountednetpresentvalueiswidelyaccepted.Thereforewhatthispaperisdoinghastoberightinsomereasonablyefficientrealestatemarket.Theproblemisthatmanyresearchershavearguedthatrealestatemarketsarefarfromefficient.ApplicationoftheNPVrelat