2016上外MTI考研真题

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1、I.Cloze.(共15个空，一空两分，共30分)卷子上的标题是Here’swhythe “Americancentury” willsurviveriseofChinaTheAmericancenturywillsurvivetheriseofChinaJosephNye  March25,2015EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChinesegrowth,writesJosephNyeIn1941TimeeditorHenryLuceproclaimed “theAmericancentury”.Somenowseethiscomingtoanendas 1

2、.  ofthenation’seconomicandpoliticaldecline.ManypointtotheexampleofUSfailuretoconvinceitsalliestostayoutoftheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,Beijing’srivaltotheWorldBank;butthiswas 2. anexampleofafaultydecisionthanevidenceofdecline,whichraisesthequestionofwhatisthenaturallifecycleofanation.Acent

3、uryisgenerallythelimitforahumanorganismbutcountriesaresocialconstructs.Romedidnotcollapseuntilmorethanthreecenturiesafteritreacheditsapogeeofpowerin117AD.AfterAmericanindependencein1776HoraceWalpole,theBritishpolitician,lamentedthathisnationhadbeenreducedtothelevelofSardinia,justasBritainwasaboutt

4、oentertheindustrialrevolutionthat 3.  itssecondcenturyasaglobalpower.AnyeffortatassessingAmericanpowerinthecomingdecadesshould 4. howmanyearliereffortshavebeenwideofthemark.Itischasteningtorememberhowwildly 5. USestimatesofSovietpowerinthe1970sandofJapanesepowerinthe1980swere.TodaysomeseetheChines

5、eas10fttallandproclaimthis“theChinesecentury”.China’ssizeandrelativelyrapideconomicgrowthwillbringitclosertotheUSintermsofitspowerresourcesinthenextfewdecades.ButthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanitwillsurpasstheUSinmilitary,economicandsoftpower.6.  Chinasuffersnobigdomesticpoliticalsetback,manyprojection

6、saresimplelinearextrapolationsofgrowthratesthatarelikelytoslowinthefuture. 7., economicprojectionsareonedimensional.TheyignoreUSmilitaryandsoftpoweradvantages,suchasthedesireofstudentsaroundtheworldtoattendUSuniversities.TheyalsooverlookChina’sgeopolitical 8.  intheAsianbalanceofpower,comparedwith

7、America’srelationswithEurope,JapanandIndia,whicharelikelytoremainmorefavourable.ItisnotimpossiblethatachallengersuchasChina,Europe,Russia,IndiaorBrazilwillsurpasstheUSinthefirsthalfofthiscenturybutitisbutnotlikel