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1、Economics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchTopofMindAugust8,2012Issue2StaringDowntheFiscalCliffFromtheeditor:IncreasinglyTopofMindistheimpendingUS“fiscalcliff”—$600bnintaxincreasesandspendingcutsthatwilloccuronJan1,2013shouldCongressnotact,madeevenmorenail-bitingastheUSisexpectedtohititsdebtceili
2、ngbymid-Feb—the“perfectstormforfiscalchaos.”InaninterviewwithourDCexpert—AlecPhillips—wediscussthemostlikelyscenario(nocliff,butdrag)andother(mostlyscary)outcomeswhileformerSenatorJuddGreggweighsinonthepoliticalmotivations.WemakethecasethatUSassets(USD/T-bills)mightactuallyperformwellinthemids
3、tofafiscalcalamityandlikelydividendtaxratehikesmayhavelessofanegativeimpactthanfeared.Ableakhistoryofroadsoutofdebtanddangersofnot“mindingthefiscalspeedlimit”—toomuchbelttighteningtoofast—leaveusallthemoreconcernedabouttheUSfiscalfutureandimplicationsforUSgrowth.InsideInterviewwithAlecPhillips
4、—Fiscalcliffinfocus4GSWashingtonDCpoliticaleconomistInterviewwithSenatorJuddGregg—Thepolitics8FormerUSSenatorfromNewHampshireIftheUSrunsoutofmoney…buyUSD?11ThomasStolper,FXStrategyResearchDividendtaxhikessomethingtofear?12StuartKaiser,USPortfolioStrategyWhenindebt,regret?Thencorrect14JoseUrsua
5、,GlobalEconomicsResearchMindingthefiscalspeedlimit15JariStehn,USEconomicsResearchWeassumethatCongressRegrettably,it'sdistinctlyEscalationofthedebtceilingwillactinthelame-ducksessionpossiblethatwehavethesamedebateandfiscalcliffwouldlikelyaftertheUSelectiontoextendmosttypeofuncertainty[astheAugu
6、stleadtosafehavenstrengthoftheUSofthecurrentpoliciesuntilsome2011debtlimitdebate]upuntilDollar…butshort-termstrengthtimein2013andthereforeavoidthththe11hour,59minute.”shouldnotmaskthefactthatthethecliff.”long-termtrendistowardsaweakerDollar.”AlecPhillips,GSUSEconomicsSenatorJuddGreggThomasStol
7、per,GSFXStrategyEditor:AllisonNathan
8、allison.nathan@gs.com
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10、Goldman,Sachs&Co.ECSExecutiveCommittee:JeffreyCurrie
11、JanHatzius
12、KathyMatsui
13、TimothyMoe
14、PeterOppenheimer
15、DominicWilsonInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasing
