瑞信-亚太地区-公用事业行业-中国大陆与香港公用事业2020年展望：操作人员要比设备更出色-2020.2.10-.pdf

《瑞信-亚太地区-公用事业行业-中国大陆与香港公用事业2020年展望：操作人员要比设备更出色-2020.2.10-.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、10January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、HongKong

3、ChinaHK/ChinaUtilitiesSector2020outlook:OperatorstooutshineequipmentUtilities

4、ThemeFigure1:Sub-sectorpositioningonearningsandvaluationResearchAnalystsDaveDai,CFA85221017358dave.dai@credit-suisse.comGaryZhou,CFA85221016648gary.zhou@credit-

5、suisse.comSabrinaShao,CFA85221016305Note:darkerbubblerareoperatorsandlighterbubblesareequipmentsuppliers.Source:CreditSuisseestimatessabrina.shao@credit-suisse.comOperatormayregainspotlight.TheIPPsareexpectedtocontinuetoimprovereturnsEugeneKlerkwithalargecoalpricedecline(9%YoY)offsetti

6、ng3-4%tariffriskswhilepotentialsupply-442078834678sidereformmayfurtherreduceoversupplyandimproveprofitabilityovertime.Thewindeugene.klerk@credit-suisse.comfarmsshouldseelittletariffriskwhileprivatisationremainsprobable.WeexpectgasRichardKersleydemandtoimproveslightlyto10%YoYin2020andth

7、epipelinereformcouldtriggerprice442078880313liberalisationandstimulatedemandfurtherinfutureyears,benefitingcitygasaskeyrichard.kersley@credit-suisse.comwinners.Generally,operatorvaluationsareattractive,tradingbelowhistoricalmeanonbothP/EandP/B.whileequipmentvaluationislessattractiveaft

8、erthereratingin2019.Risingrisksforequipmentmakers.Weturnselectiveonequipmentwiththreeriskyareastoavoid.Gridcapexmaydeclineanother8%in2020,recentlyindicatedbystategridguidelines,buteIoTmayseelargeexpansion.Followingrushedinstallation,windturbinesmayseeslowingnewordersandtenderpricefalls

9、asearlyas1Q20,asgrid-parityafter2020cannotberealisedwithoutcheaperturbines.Despite19%solardemandgrowth,mono-wafermayseelargemargindownsidewith70%supplyexpansion.Solarglassisourmostpreferredproductwithbalanceddemand-supplyandfavourablecompetitivelandscape.BearinmindthegrowingESGimpact.O

10、urinvestorsurveyshows>50%believeESGtohaveagrowingimpactinAsia.Drivenbyregulatoryrequirementandinvestordemand,weexpectmoreutilitiestoimprovedisclosureandmakeeffortstoreducegapsvs.globalpeers’.In2018,66%ofourcoveredcompaniesdisclosedESGinformationvs.41%in2016andaverageratingshaveimprov