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1、Chapter5CausalModelsandCounterfactualsJamesMahoney,GaryGoertz,andCharlesC.RaginAbstractThisarticlecomparesstatisticalandset-theoreticapproachestocausalanalysis.Statisticalresearcherscommonlyuseadditive,linearcausalmodels,whereasset-theoreticresearcherstypical
2、lyuselogic-basedcausalmodels.Thesemodelsdifferinmanyfundamentalways,includingwhethertheyassumesymmetricorasymmetricalcausalpatterns,andwhethertheycallattentiontoequiÞnalityandcombinatorialcausation.Thetwoapproachesalsodifferinhowtheyutilizecounterfactualsandc
3、arryoutcounterfactualanalysis.Statisticalresearchersusecounterfactualstoillustratetheirresults,buttheydonotusecounterfactualanalysisforthegoalofcausalmodelestimation.Bycontrast,set-theoreticresearchersusecounterfactualstoestimatemodelsbymakingexplicittheirass
4、umptionsaboutemptysectorsinthevectorspacedeÞnedbythecausalvariables.Thepaperconcludesbyurginggreaterappreciationofthedifferencesbetweenthestatisticalandset-theoreticapproachestocausalanalysis.Inthesocialsciences,statisticalandset-theoreticscholarsadoptdiffere
5、ntapproachestocausalanalysis.Thesedifferencesarenotwellunderstoodbyeitherstatisticalorset-theoreticresearchers.Inthischapter,weseektoclarifywhatisdistinctiveaboutstatisticalandset-theoreticapproachesbycontrastingtwoapproachesforcausalanalysis.Ourpurposeisnott
6、oarguethatoneapproachisrightandtheotheriswrong.Instead,wesuggestthetwoapproachesaredesignedtoaddressdifferentkindsofquestionsandmeetdifferentresearchgoals.Bothapproachesmakesenseinlightofsomeobjectivesbutnotothers.Weexaminethetwoapproachesacrosstwobroadareas:
7、casualmodelsandcounterfactuals.First,wecompareanadditive,linearcausalmodel,whichiscommoninstatisticalresearch,toaset-theoreticcausalmodelbasedonlogic,whichisoftenused(implicitly)inset-theoreticresearch.WesuggestJ.Mahoney()DepartmentsofPoliticalScienceandSoci
8、ology,NorthwesternUniversity,Evanston,IL60201,USAe-mail:james-mahoney@northwestern.eduG.GoertzKrocInstituteforInternationalPeaceStudies,UniversityofNotreDame,SouthBend,IN46556-5677,USAe-m
