巴黎银行-哥伦比亚-国家政策-税率：削减还是不削减？

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1、Colombia’srates:Tocutornottocut?Author:BanRep'sboardisdiscussingwhetherornottoadoptamorestimulatorypolicystance.FlorenciaVazquezEconomistFortheremainderoftheyear,weseeahigherchanceofamorecautioustoneprevailing.BNPParibasSucursalBuenosAiresIn2018,however,mo

2、reambitiouspolicyactionshouldensue,inthefaceofGDPnumbers.LuizEduardoPeixotoEconomistBancoBNPParibasBrasilSAAtitsSeptembermeeting,Colombia’scentralbank(BanRep)optedtostayonhold,takingonamorecautioustone.Theexternalandpublicsectoraccountimbalancesarebeingfeatur

3、edmorefrequentlyintheircommuniqués,whichsupportsourviewthatawait-and-seeapproachonratesthisyeariswarranted.But,thereisanongoingdebateastowhetherGDPgrowthwillmoveclosertopotential,leavingthedooropenformorestimulatoryactionin2018,inourview.ImbalancesinaccountsW

4、orriesoftheboardseemjustified.ThecurrentaccountdeficitfinishedQ2at3.7%,anditisendorsecautionforecasttoend2017around3.5%.Althoughslimmerthanlastyear,itisstillmorethan1ppawayfromsustainablelevels,accordingtoourStrategyteam(pleasesee,LatamFXquarterly:FEERmodelva

5、luesupdate).NumbersforQ3arenotexpectedtobereleaseduntilDecember,butthecountry’stradebalancetrendsdonotsuggestanysignificantchangessoon(Chart1).“Twin”deficitstofinishThegovernment’sbudgetbalanceisnotexpectedtomeetthe3.5%fiscaltarget,butwilllikelytheyeararound7

6、.5%sitnear4%fortheyear(pleasesee,Colombia’sfiscalpolicy:Growingpains).Althoughthe2018budgetprojectsaspendingcutin2017ofaround1ppofGDP,wedonotbelievethiswillmaterialisefully,giventhecutsalreadymadetopublicinvestmentin2016(from4%to3%ofGDP)andobligationsconcerni

7、ngthecountry’sinfrastructureprogrammeandthepeaceagreementplan.PositiveoutputgapseenConversely,webelieve2018willbesaferforthecentralbanktocutrates.Thecurrent,largethroughout2018outputgapsupportsadditionalmonetaryeasingin2018,withoutinflationarypressures.Ourest

8、imates,basedupontheframeworkdevelopedbytheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank(IABD),pointstoenoughfattoburnintermsofidlecapacity(seeChart2).Besides,thedownturninconsumptionshouldhavelaggedeffec