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1、2Q19:WhywethinktherallyisclosetothetopChinaInvestmentAtlas(Issue67)EquityStrategyChinaTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)CHINA/HONGKONGINDEXTARGETSuThepictureisbecomingmoremixed–furt
2、herupsidelimiteduTweakend-2019eindextargets:MSCIChina94,HangSeng31,000,HSCEI12,500,HSCCI4,800–implying2-10%upsideuRaiseutilitiestooverweight;lowerenergytoneutral;remainoverweightfinancialsandindustrials,underweightITStillgoing,butslowing.Inourlastreport,wepointedtotheposi
3、tiveforcesdrivingtherallyinoffshoreChineseequities,includingearningsgrowth,amoredovishUSFed,lowerIndexHSBClevel*2019eUpsideMSCIChina859410%HSBCimplied12mforwardPE15.0xHSCEI11,54712,5008%7.8xHSCCI4,7084,8002%10.6xHangSeng29,62531,0005%12.0x*Asof2April2019Source:MSCI,Refin
4、itivDatastream,HSBCestimates4April2019USbondyields,policysupportinChina,signsofoptimismaboutSino-UStradetalks,andfavourableFXmovements(ChinaOffshoreStrategy:2019:Agoodstart,forbelievers,18February2019).Someofthesedriversarestillatwork–theMSCIChinaIndexisnowupc20%y-t-d,ve
5、rsusup13%y-t-dthroughmid-February–butwebelievethepicturehasbecomemoremixed.Asaresult,wetweakourend-2019eindextargets–MSCIChinato94from90,HangSengto31,000from30,000,HSCEIto12,500from12,000,andHSCCIto4,800from4,600–whichimplylimitedupsideof2-10%.Whatournewmarketsentimenttra
6、ckertellsus.It’sclearthattherallyhasbeensupportedbyverypositiveinvestorsentiment.OurnewproprietaryChinaoffshoreequitymarketsentimenttracker,releasedalongsidethisreport,showsthatMSCIChinasentimentisnowtwostandarddeviationsabovetheindex’shistoricalaverage.Whilesentimentisst
7、illontherise,thepaceatwhichitisincreasingisslowingdown.SeeChinaOffshoreStrategy:Introducingourmarketsentimenttracker,4April2019.Thissuggeststhat,inlinewithourviews,therallymayberunningoutofsteam.Newnegatives:Theseincludedeceleratingearningsgrowth,sluggishsouthboundinflows
8、fromtheStockConnectschemes,andlessattractivevaluations.ForMSCIChina,thePEof12.3ximpliesthata12-m
