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《基于峰值预测模型的中国石油产量合理规划（rational planning of china's oil production based on peak value forecasting model）》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、基于峰值预测模型的中国石油产量合理规划（RationalplanningofChina'soilproductionbasedonpeakvalueforecastingmodel）ThispaperiscontributedbyQ174788632PdfdocumentsmayexperiencepoorbrowsingontheWAPside.ItisrecommendedthatyouselectTXTfirstordownloadthesourcefiletothelocalmachine.PetroleumexplorationanddevelopmentAugust2007PE
2、TROLEUMEXPLORATIONANDDEVELOPMENTVol.34.4Noarticlenumber:100020747(2007)0420497205OfpetroleumresourcesFourhundredandninety-sevenRationalplanningofChina'soilproductionbasedonpeakvalueforecastingmodelFengLianyong,TangXu,ZhaoLin(ChinaUniversityofPetroleum(Beijing))Abstract:peakoilproductionpredictionm
3、odelbasedonthereasonableplanningofoilproductionundertheconditionofoilproductionpeaktimeChinawillappearinthe2017beforeandafterthepeakyieldisabout185millionT;andtheoilconsumptionwillpeakin2034,uptoabout633millionT,thenthecountry'soilproductionhasenteredthedeclinestage,externaldependencewillreachabou
4、t73%,thecontradictionbetweenoilsupplyanddemandandoilsecurityissueswillbecomemoreprominent.Theanalysisthinks,shouldberationalplanningofdomesticoilproduction:reducethecurrentoilproductionwillpeakoilproductionfelltoabout170millionT,theoutputpeaktimetoaround2030,whichmakestheproductionpeakandpeakoilde
5、mandarebasicallyconsistent,canaccordinglyreduceoilimports,thusreducingdependenceonforeignoilsecurity.Oilsupplysecurity.Figures3,table5andreferences19Keywords:oilproductionpeakvalue;predictionmodel;productionplanning;contradictionbetweensupplyanddemand;oilsecurityinFigureclassificationnumber:TE32do
6、cumentidentificationcode:AReasonableplanningofoilproductioninChinabasedonpeakoilmodelFENGLian2yong,TANGXu,ZHAOLin(ChiNaUNiversityofPetroleum,BEIjing102249,ChiNa)Abstract:InChina,ifoilproductionwerenotplannedrationally,thepeakofoilproductionwouldoccurround2017,thePeakproductionwouldbeaboutntoNSbase
7、d185millioonpeakoilmodelsandthepeakof;OilConsumptionwouldoccuraroundthepeakoilco2034,nsumptionabout633milliontonsatt,hattime,thenationaloilproductionwouldhaveenteredadeclinestage.Anddependenceontheoutsidewouldbea
