瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：股票和债券收益率脱钩：下一步会怎样？-2019.7.9.pdf

《瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：股票和债券收益率脱钩：下一步会怎样？-2019.7.9.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、9July2019GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comEquities&bondyieldsdecoupling:Whatnext?RobertGriffiths442078838885Weseeaclearriskthatbondyieldscouldrise.Webelieve10yrBundrobert.gri

2、ffiths@credit-suisse.comyieldswillriseto0%and10yrUSTreasuriesto2.4%ona6to12-monthview.NicolasWylenzekBondyieldstendtoriseasISMturnshigher,andwebelieveweareveryclose442078836480toatroughinISM/GlobalPMIs,as:i)USleadindicators,especiallyofnicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comcorporatespendin

3、g,havereboundedmarginallyfromadmittedlyweaklevels;MengyuanYuanii)globalservicesPMIsroseslightlylastmonth;iii)Europeanleadindicators442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comarenowrisinginatimeof2.5%realwagegrowth;andiv)Chinaisstabilizing.AsimAliOtherfactorsthatsupporthigheryields:UScy

4、clicalsareimplyinga50bps442078832480movehigherinUSyields;the2-yearnotewasthisfarbelowthefedfundsrateasim.ali@credit-suisse.comjustfourmonthsbeforethe2001recessionand12monthsbeforetheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007-08.Ifshort-rateexpectationsrise,sodobondyields.Bundyieldsseemtobeimplyingtha

5、tEuropeisinamorechallengingsituationthanJapan,butwethinktherearekeydifferences,amongthemdemographics,wagegrowth,propertypricesandrecapitalizedbanks.ThegapbetweeninflationexpectationsinEuropeandwagegrowth(whichdrives70%ofinflation)isatarecordhighandBundyieldsareimplyingafurtherfallinPMI

6、neworders,whichwethinkiswrong.TIPShavebeenresponsiblefortwo-thirdsofthemoveinyieldsYTDandarelikelytoberesponsibleformostoftherise.Equitiesmaybemoreresilienttohigheryieldsthanmanyinvestorsbelieve:Bond-to-equitydecouplingisthemostextremewehaveseeninthisbullmarket—smallerperiodsofdecoupli

7、nghaveseenequitiesrise(byanaverageof4%)asbondyieldsrose(byanaverageof1ppt).Curiously,year-to-date,equitieshaverisenby0.45%ondayswhenyieldshaverisenanddeclinedby0.1%ondayswhentheyhavefallen.Webelievethatthemarketcanaccommodateyieldsrisingtoc2.5%,giventhehighERP(5.9%onourestimates)andU