香港点心债券市场

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1、Creditprimer:Off-shoreRMBmarketEmergingMarketsCreditStrategy

2、Asia07February2011Dimsum(bonds)anyone?MicheleBarlow+85225363750ResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)¢StateoftheCNH(dimsum)bondmarketsmichele.barlow@baml.comTheCNHbondmarkethasgrownataphenomenalrateinthelastyearalthoughJoyceLiang+852253638

3、17StructuredProductAnalysttheoutstandingmarketsizewasstillrelativelysmallatRMB76bn($12bn)atMerrillLynch(HongKong)YE2010.HGissuersdominatethemarketwithbanksandfundsbeingthemainjoyce.liang@baml.cominvestors.Tradingliquidityisrelativelyweakduetothesmalldealsize(RMB1-1.5bn)andtheshorttenor(2-3yrs)ofbon

4、ds.IngeneralCNHbondstradeatapremiumtoCNYbondsbutadiscounttoUSDbondsforIGissuersalthoughthereChart1:Off-shoreRMBbondmarketissuancehasbeensomearbitrageforHYissuersrelativetoUSDbonds.50,00045,000Historyanddriversofoff-shoreRMBgrowth/development40,000TheCNHmarketstartedin2007butgrowthreallytookoffin2H2

5、010whenHKMA35,00030,000allowedalargerrangeofissuerstoparticipate.Alsodrivingthegrowtharethe25,000rapidaccumulationinRMBdepositsandincreasingpoolofRMBholdersandRMBmn20,000rangeofRMB-settledinvestmentproductsofferedaftertheregulatoryrelaxation.15,00010,0005,000Syntheticbonds:The“other”RMBmarket0Thisi

6、snotanewmarketperseasChinesecompanieshaveissuedsynthetic20072008200920102011YTDRMBCBs,butarelativelynewmarketforstraightbondissuers.InterestinglyweCNHBondsSyntheticRMBBonds(Non-CB)CNHCDshaveseenmoreissuanceinsyntheticformatthanwehaveseeninCNHformatSource:Bloomberg,BofAMerrillLynchGlobalResearchsinc

7、ethestartoftheyear,butonlyfromHKandChinesepropertycompaniestodate.Theaveragedealsizeislarger,durationislongerandliquidityisgreaterthanforCNHbondsastheinvestorbaseisbiggerandmorediversified.PricingissimilartoUSDmarketincorporatingRMBappreciation.WecompareandcontrastRulesofthumbforconvertingRMBtheCNH

8、andsyntheticRMBmarketsforissuersandinvestors.bondstoUSDandback:Transferringbondproceedson-shore¢USDequivalentcoupon=RMBlinkedSimilartobringingFXonshore,theCNHbondproceedscanberepatriatedcoupon+$IRSrate–(ND)