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1、13March2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyWhenisthelow,andhowbigistheV?InvestmentStrategy
2、StrategyWebelieveequitymarketswillbesignificantlyabovecurrentlevelsbyyear-end,butwehavenotseenalltheconditionsrequiredforatrough.Ofthefactorswearemonito
3、ring,wehaveyettoResearchAnalystsseethefollowingthree:AndrewGarthwaiteApeakindailyinfectionrates(intheSARScrisis,marketstroughedaweeklater);442078836477AtroughinPMIs(wethinkthiscouldhappeninMay).GlobalPMIsarealreadyconsistentandrew.garthwaite@credit-su
4、isse.comwith1%globalGDPgrowth(halfofourhouseview),butwecouldseePMIsfallingto40-RobertGriffiths45inEuropeandtheUS;442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comClear-cutfiscaleasingintheUS,althoughthisisstartingelsewhere(includingEuropetoday).Thesearet
5、hefactorswehaveseensofarthatareconsistentwithamarkettrough:NicolasWylenzek442078836480Tacticalindicatorsattheirmostdepressedlevelsonrecord(havingbeenatathree-yearhigh).nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comClear-cutmonetaryresponseandveryloosemonetarycond
6、itions(andexpandingcentralMengyuanYuanbankbalancesheets);442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comWehavealreadyseenthe‘normal’marketcorrection(15%)thatwewouldexpectwhentheoilpricecollapses(asseenin1998and2015/16).AsimAliWeexpectaV-shapedrecoveryulti
7、matelyandwouldbebuyersofequitiesonaone-yearview;442078832480asim.ali@credit-suisse.comwebelievemarketswillrise15-20%overthenext12months,given:1.Historicallywhenwelookatexogenoussupply-sideshocks,marketstendtoriseveryTimothyO'Sullivan442078889803rapidl
8、yfromthetrough(SARS,Kobeearthquake,Suez,1987).Thisiswhy57%ofthetimothy.osullivan@credit-suisse.comtimewehaveenteredabearmarket,equitieshavebeenhigherayearout(andinthecaseof1966,1982and1987,upmorethan20%).Wewouldnotethataftersomeoftheseshocks(1987)them
9、arkethadadoublebottomoverthreemonthsbeforetherebound;2.Undervaluationofequities:clear-cutundervaluationusingtheERP(8.2%versusawarrantedof6.3%)isdiscountingan11%fallinearningsandISMof45;3.IGspreadsarehigherthanthelevelsseenintheearly2000and1990
