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ID:8218783
大小:1.60 MB
页数:96页
时间:2018-03-10
《j.p. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-2018.1.26-96页》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed26Jan201808:51PMESTDisseminated26Jan201808:54PMESTEconomicResearchJanuary26,2018GlobalDataWatchDollardeclinesaregenerallyconstructivefromaglobalperspectiveContentsOilpricesnotyetagrowththreat,butoilsupplyneedstoshowstrong-Oil’supandthat’sokayforer
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3、tostayFourquestionsaround4%ofGDP23UK:WeaksupplylikelytopressureIncomingeconomicnewssendsaconsistentpictureofstrengthatyear-end,theBoEtohikeagain25withthisweekdeliveringafurthersignificantupwardrevisiontoEuroareaBrazilinflation:Whatgoesdowngrowth.Withtheregio
4、nnowanticipatedtoexpand2.9%thisyear,theEurodoesnotalwaysgobackup27areagrowthengineisnolongeranoxymoron.However,alongsidethispictureAustralia:Gettinggranularonhousingvaluationratios31ofbroad-basedstrengthrecentdevelopmentsraiseasetofchallengingques-Indiain201
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6、lanceshouldbewelcomedwhilethoseSelectedrecentresearchfromthatthreatenfinancialstabilityshouldbefeared.Withthisinmind,there9J.P.MorganEconomicsareanumberofreasonstolookfavorablyonthelatestdollardecline.AsitTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10comesagainstthebackdropofs
7、ynchronizedglobalgrowththeslidelooksDataWatchescloselylinkedtothenormalizationofbusinesscycleconditionsoutsidetheUnitedStates35US.AlthoughanumberofcurrencieshaverisensubstantiallyagainsttheEuroarea43Japan48dollaronabilateralbasis,thebroad-basednatureofthismo
8、veisnotpro-Canada52ducingaconcentratedappreciationinotherlargecountries’tradeweightedMexico54indices(Figure1).InEM,thedollarslideisreducingthepressurenormallyBrazil56placedoncentralbanksastheFed
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