j.p. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-2018.1.26-96页

j.p. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-2018.1.26-96页

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时间:2018-03-10

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1、Completed26Jan201808:51PMESTDisseminated26Jan201808:54PMESTEconomicResearchJanuary26,2018GlobalDataWatchDollardeclinesaregenerallyconstructivefromaglobalperspectiveContentsOilpricesnotyetagrowththreat,butoilsupplyneedstoshowstrong-Oil’supandthat’sokayforer

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4、nnowanticipatedtoexpand2.9%thisyear,theEurodoesnotalwaysgobackup27areagrowthengineisnolongeranoxymoron.However,alongsidethispictureAustralia:Gettinggranularonhousingvaluationratios31ofbroad-basedstrengthrecentdevelopmentsraiseasetofchallengingques-Indiain201

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6、lanceshouldbewelcomedwhilethoseSelectedrecentresearchfromthatthreatenfinancialstabilityshouldbefeared.Withthisinmind,there9J.P.MorganEconomicsareanumberofreasonstolookfavorablyonthelatestdollardecline.AsitTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10comesagainstthebackdropofs

7、ynchronizedglobalgrowththeslidelooksDataWatchescloselylinkedtothenormalizationofbusinesscycleconditionsoutsidetheUnitedStates35US.AlthoughanumberofcurrencieshaverisensubstantiallyagainsttheEuroarea43Japan48dollaronabilateralbasis,thebroad-basednatureofthismo

8、veisnotpro-Canada52ducingaconcentratedappreciationinotherlargecountries’tradeweightedMexico54indices(Figure1).InEM,thedollarslideisreducingthepressurenormallyBrazil56placedoncentralbanksastheFed

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