麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚投资策略

《麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚投资策略》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、MALAYSIAMalaysiaStrategyMGSbondyieldvs.MGSforeignHavenappealintactholdingConclusion55%5.0%Ringgitassetswererelativelyresilientamidstpreviousweek’sglobalmarket50%4.5%volatility,withthebenchmark10yrMGSyieldbarelybudgingwhiletheKLSE45%4.0%40%tangiblyoutperformedregionalpeers.WithBankNegara

2、appearingtohave35%3.5%threvertedtoneutralmodepost-25Janratehikeandsystemliquidityample,30%3.0%domesticcostofmoneyremainsstableandunderlyingmacroi.e.robustGDPn-15pr-15l-15ct-15n-16pr-16l-16ct-16n-17pr-17l-17t-17JaAJuOJaAJuOJaAJuOcgrowth,firmerRinggit,supportiveoffinancialassetsreflation.M

3、arketdipsinreactiontooffshorevolatilityareopportunitiestopickupbanks(CIMB,HLBK,ForeignownershipofMGS(%)RHB),selectiveGLCs(Tenaga,Telekom),construction(AQRS,Econpile),MGS10Yyield(RHS)exporters(Inari,TopGlove;2H18Ringgittrendtobesupportive)aswellasSource:BNM,MacquarieResearch,February2018A

4、irAsia,Timedotcom,Bursa(M);sellintostrengthreGamuda,DiGi,PETD.ImpactUSDMYRvs.BrentoilpriceYields–yieldingnoground:MGS(MalaysianGovernmentSecurity)yieldshavetradedinatight6bpsrangeYTD,andat3.97%,arewellbelowa12mthUS$/bbl80highof4.2%(fig1).Narrowedloan-depositgrowthgap(fig2)andimproved4.5

5、070fiscaltrend(fig3),thelattersupportedbyabove-budgetoilprice,hasdrivena4.006050wideningsavings-investmentgapasunderscoredbyrisingcurrentaccount3.5040surplus(fig4);afirmerRinggitmeansc.RM190bnsurplusliquidityplacedwith30BankNegaraasatend-3Qisatangiblebuffervis-à-visanyknee-jerkselling,3.

6、0020especiallyfromforeigners(whoholdc.RM164bnor48%ofMGSoutstanding).n-15ar-15l-15v-15n-16ar-16l-16v-16n-17ar-17l-17v-17n-18ay-15Juep-15ay-16Juep-16ay-17Juep-17JaMMSNoJaMMSNoJaMMSNoJaKLCI–havenfromvolatility:Peritstradinghistoryasarelativelylowbetamarket,theKLCIhassignificantlyoutperform

7、edtheMSCIYTD(fig5),withaUSDMYRCrudeoil(RHS)keystabilisingfactorbeingthedominanceofcashed-updomesticinstitutionalSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,February2018investorsinthemarket(fig6).Contrastingstill-lowcash/debtyields(vs.KLCIdividendyieldof3.3%)andasluggishpropertymar