麦格理-泰国-宏观策略-泰国策略：小心隔阂

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1、THAILANDThailandStrategySETconsensus12mthfwdPERMindthegap(x)18.00Conclusion16.00SETIndexhasperformedwellwitha9.9%increaseYTD,whichinouropinion14.00hasbeenduetotheexpectationofpositiveimpactsfrommajorinfrastructure12.00projects,EasternEconomicCorridor/EEC,andaclearerelectiontimeline.10.00Thishasl

2、edtoahighexpectation,whichreflectsdemandingmarket8.00valuations(2017EPERof17.0x,+2SD),andinouropinionhassetuptheDec-09Dec-11Dec-13Dec-15marketfordisappointmentaswebelievethatthereare“gaps”betweenthe1-yrfwdPERSTD-2marketexpectationandexecutioncapability.STD-1Mean=14STD+1STD+2Inthisupdate,wetheref

3、oretakealookintothegovernmentinfrastructureSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,Nov2017projects,whichwehavedoubtsonthecontractors’abilitytofurtherabsorbtheupcomingbidding.WealsoexpectonlyaBt65.0bndisbursementofgovernmentinfrastructureprojects,andwebelievethatpositiveimpactstotheprivateinvestmentand

4、consumptionwillremainrelativelylukewarmuntiltheSETIndextarget(end-2018)completionofkeyprojectswhichwillbe2020orlater.2018E2019ESETindexEPS108.5118.3Impact-Growth(%YoY)9.09.0AssignedSETindexPER14.5SlightlyhigherSETindextarget(end-2018)at1,715(from1,701),aswe-impliedSETindex1,715slightlyincreaseou

5、r2018EEPSgrowthfrom8.5%to9.0%.Westillhavea-%TSR(3%divyld)4.2CurrentSETindex(24Nov)1,696neutralviewonthestockmarketandthesupportingfactorsremainthelowSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,Nov2017interestrateandimprovingglobaleconomy.At1,696(currentSETIndex),themarketvaluationsremaindemandingwithalmos

6、t+2SDfor2017EPERand+1SDfor2018EPER.TheBBconsensus2017EROEanddividendyieldarealsoatthehistoricallow,i.e.10.2%and2.7%respectively.ThailandmostpreferredstocksBBGcode,BtRecPriceTargetTSR%MarketEPSstillonadownwardtrend.ForYTD,theconsensusEPSPTTOP414.00474.0018.8estimateoftheSETIndexremainsonadownward

7、trendwithYTDrevisionsIVLOP49.5063.0029.3of-2.8%for2017EEPS,-3.3%for2018Eand-9.8%2019E.MostofSET’sSCCOP486.00589.0025.1PTTGCOP78.5093.0023.5keysectorshavecontinuedtoshowdownwardrevisions,exceptforenergySCBOP147.00190.00