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1、JAPANJapanmacro-strategyStrategysummary:2018infocusWebelieveweareinastock-pickingenvironmentandbasedonhistoricalEarningsandvaluations:Boththe2018GlobalEconomicandMarketOutlook:experience,thebestperformersareMakehaywhilethesunshinesbyRicDeverelletal,andtheRights
2、,Wrongs&associatedwithhighROEs—anaverageofReturns:2018–Yearofchoices&consequencesbyViktorShvetsare16.2%acrossallofthetablesinthelinkedsupportiveofJapaneseequities:Ourglobalmacrooutlooksupportscontinuedreport.WeshowcasehighROEcompaniesmildpositiveearningsrevisio
3、nmomentum;weregardJapaneseequitybytheme:AgingJapan,Internationalisation,valuationstobeinlinewithhistoricalnorms.Founder/entrepreneurs&largecashbalancesTOPIXEPSconsensusrevisionsbyfiscalyearTheMacquarieMarqueeideas:ourhighestconvictionanalystcalls150¥FY03/11FY03
4、/12FY03/13FY03/14FY03/15StockTickerRecC/PT/P%FY03/16FY03/17FY03/18FY03/19SakataSeed1377OP3,5853,8006.0130JapanTobacco2914OP3,7054,80029.6118.2Rengo3941OP72380010.7110107.8JXTGHoldings5020OP633.174016.9Tadano6395OP1,7622,10019.292.8MinebeaMitsumi6479OP2,2812,400
5、5.29091.1MitsubishiElectric6503OP1,894.52,18015.188.8Nissan7201OP1,077.51,54042.97075.1Nintendo7974OP46,61055,00018.0TokyoElectron8035OP23,34529,75027.4Kajima1812UP1,141750-34.347.15045.4Note:Pricesareasof24November201740.2Source:JPX(TokyoStockExchange),Macquar
6、ieResearch,November20173015timesconsensusFY3/19ETOPIXEPSof118.2isTOPIX1770Source:Factset,MacquarieResearch,November2017Japan-relatedmacroreportsTheoutlookfortheBOJ:WeexpecttheBOJtoremaintheglobaloutlier,withJapan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathonnochangetoitstargeting
7、of10-yeargovernmentbondyieldsataroundzero.PMAbehasjustwonaLowerHouseelectionwithanelectionmanifestowhichTheUS-Japanrelationshipincludedfiscalconsolidation,i.e.implementingthelegislatedincreaseintheFinancialrepressionfordecadesconsumptiontaxrateto10%from8%inOcto
8、ber2019.Japan’sfiscaldeficitisstillaround4%ofGDP.Withfiscaltighteningtwoyearsaway,monetarypolicyMyth-busting:Japanesewagesmustremainveryaccommodative,pages4-5.FactoryAsia’s2
