麦格理-菲律宾-宏观策略-菲律宾策略：期待更好的显著增长

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1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectoralvaluationsExpectingmarkedlybettergrowthPEREPSchP/BROEYield(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)ConclusionCo2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EBanks14.422.91.712.51.4With3Q17corporateresultsseasonabouttocommenceforourPhilippinesConsumer25.510.33.815.11.4

2、Conglomerates21.014.82.512.51.0universecoverage,wethinkthattheoutcomeshouldbesupportiveofourProperty25.215.63.213.21.3overweightviewonthecountry.Telecoms15.510.93.221.74.0Utilities15.63.92.617.23.3Philippines18.014.82.713.91.5ImpactSource:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,O

3、ctober2017;pricesasof25October2017Positionedforimprovementversusearlierquarters.Afterachievingaggregategrowthinthesingle-digitrangeinthefirsttwoquartersof2017,wethinkthat3Q17shouldhavemarkedlybetterperformancewithaY/YgrowthPhilippinetoppicksinorderofofatleast10%.Thiswo

4、uldbebetterthanthe1H17Y/Ygrowthof4.2%forpreference-valuationsouraggregatecoverage.ThebusinessclimateinthePhilippineshasPEREPSchP/BROEYieldexperiencedaresurgencewithfirmingremittances,resilientoutsourcing(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)2018E2018E2018E2018E2018Egrowth,andtheeconomicboostc

5、omingfromChinaacrossseveralfronts.CoMPIPM16.3(0.7)1.27.91.3MEGPM11.316.91.210.51.1Propertysectorlikelythestarperformer.Onasectoralbasis,wethinkthatURCPM24.510.23.614.41.9thepropertysectorpossessesthegreatestabilitytosurpriseontheupsideinALIPM21.419.23.415.91.1PGOLDPM20

6、.112.52.713.60.6termsofearnings.Thisisdrivenbyasurgeinofficedemand,withoutsourcingBDOPM16.026.61.911.81.4growthprovingquiteresilientthatiscomplementedbytheemergenceofACPM18.215.32.513.80.4MBTPM11.121.91.211.11.1PhilippineOffshoreGamingOperators(POGOs).Thelatteralongwith

7、anSource:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,Octoberuptickinremittancesgrowtharelikelytohaveledtoasurgeinresidential2017;pricesasof25October2017take-upbackintodouble-digitterritoryforthebiggestdevelopers.Consumerandbanksshouldalsodeliverpositively.LedbyretailerslikelyPhilipp

8、inetoppicksinorderoftohavestabletofirmingsamestoresalesgrowthalongwithsomemarginpreference-ratings,mktcap,vola