中国股市和美国股市nasdaq镜像关系的实证研究1

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1、WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ?-Whereisthesolution?ChristopherPollChairman,GreaterChinaConsultancyLtd.,3QUESTIONSRAISEDHOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOP

2、EDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?TheFinancialMarketsareDynamicBusinessis“Proactive”ButRegulatorsare“Reactive”not“ProactiveTheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamicImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibilityFinancialInfrastructureMAINFAC

3、TORSFORFUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutionalManagersCentredaroundPublicInvestorsPRIVATESECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflictofInterest?ConflictofInterestWhoistheclient?WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto?CanRegulationbeProtectwi

4、thFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutualFundsInvestors’Confidence=Investors’EducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/ConfidenceEasierandmoreeffectiveenforcement.Increasedefficiencyreducescosts.Improvedflexibilityofthe

5、infrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively.EfficientInfrastructureTransparencyAccountabilityLeadsto:AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustryInvestors’behaviourStockInvestorsFundInvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesEx

6、changeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCWHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits???NASDAQCorporateProfits???Confidence$$$1995-2000C$IFCONFIDENCEISLOWTHENMONEYFLOWISMINUTECONFIDENCE$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$IFCONFIDENCEISHIGHTHENMONEYFLOWISLARGEWhatistheCriteria

7、ForInvesting?1.WhatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketinChinatoday?Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies-6Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings-10Governmentpolicy-62Govt.investigationintomalpractices15Theoveralleconomicgrowthofthe

8、Chineseeconomy-27China'sentryinto