中国货币危机早期预警的的研究

《中国货币危机早期预警的的研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、过保持宏观经济稳定实现经济可持续增长、谨慎开放资本账户、转变外贸增长方式保持国际收支的平衡、扩大内需降低对外部环境的过度依赖、降低银行体系的脆弱性、加强国际货币合作、防止泡沫经济的发生等政策建议，可以降低中国发生货币危机的概率。关键词：货币危机早期预警KLR信号法非参数模型AbstractIn1970，afterthecollapseoftheBrettonWoodssystem，currencycrisesoccurredmoreandmorefrequentbetweencountriesi

2、ntheworldandtheirdestructivepowerwerealsogrowing．Inparticular，Asianfinancialcrisesin1997and1998broughtaboutbythestrongimpactofthewoddeconomy，rosearoundtheworldpayingcloseattentionbythegovernments，andurgedacademiaspendingaconsiderableamountofresearche

3、sonthecurrencycrises．Inthe30yearsofreformandopeningup．alongwitlleconomyrapiddevelopment,Chinaandthecountriesoftheworld’Sincreasinglycloseties．Especiallyin2001，aftertheaccessiontotheWTO，China'seconomytofurtherincreasethedegreeofopeningtotheoutsideworl

4、d．In1996，Chinaachievedafreelyconvertibleundercurrentaccount,theearlyrealizationofhowfreelyconvertibleunderthecapitalaccounthasbeentheChinesegovernmentandacademicconcerns．Butopeningthecapitalaccount，Chinawillmaketheeconomythepossibilityofcurrencycrise

5、s．Earlywarningofcurrencycrisesisalleffectivemeanstopreventcurrencycrises．Domesticandforeignscholarshadundertakenextensiveresearchonthecurrencycrisesofearlywarning，andalsohadbeenalotofverysignificantresearchresults．KLRsignalrepresentedbyaseriesofstudi

6、eshasbeenconvincingevidenceoftheresults．Inthispaper，itusesofimprovedsignalKLRmodelandusesofmonthlydatatoChinain1997-2007oftheoveralleconomicsituationofempiricalanalysis．Thewholepaperconsistsoffivechapters．ChapteroneiSintroduction，mainlydescribestheba

7、ckgroundandsignificanceofresearch，madedistinctionofconceptsbetweenafewandeasytoconfuse，carriedoutthecollationandevaluationofliteratureathomeandabroad，andpointsouttheresearchmethodsandideas．andtheinnovationandweaknessofthisarticle．Chaptertwoteasesthes

8、ortsofdevelopmentofcurrencycrisestheoriesincontextandsortsthemintothreegenerationsbyinternationalcomparison．Inthestudyofitscontentsbasedonthreegenerationsofthecurrencycrisestheories，thischapterestimatestheinsufficienciesandcontributionstothetheories．