贸易量与贸易政策对经济增长的分析【外文翻译】

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1、外文翻译原文DECODINGTHEEFFECTSOFTRADEVOLUMEANDTRADEPOLICIESONECONOMICGROWTH--ACross-CountryInvestigationMaterialSource:http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwpit/0405003.htmAuthor:DardanaRrukaCross-CountryRegressionAnalyses:theEffectsofExportGrowthonEconomicGrowthEdwardsthengo

2、esontoinvestigatestudiespertainingtohissecondgroupofgrowthliterature:cross-countryregressionanalysesoftherelationshipbetweenexportgrowthandeconomicperformance.ReturningtotheworksofAnneKrueger,EdwardsreviewsresultsofherForeignTradeRegimesandEconomicDevelopment,whichemploys

3、datafromherNBERmulticountrystudy.Thiscross-countryregressionanalysishypothesizesthat“(i)moreliberalizedregimesresultinhigherratesofgrowthofexports;and(ii)[that]amoreliberalizedtradesectorhasapositiveeffectonaggregategrowth.”(Edwards,p.1371)Kruegerfindsthatmoreliberalizedr

4、egimesindeedleadtoagrowthinexports,however,suchliberalizationisfoundtohavenodirecteffectoneconomicperformance.However,KruegernotesgrowthinGNPtobetheresultofgrowthinexports,whichistriggeredbyliberalizationoftrade;thusliberalizationisfoundtohaveanindirectandpositiveeffecton

5、aggregategrowth.Explainingthis“mere”indirecteffectonaggregategrowthisBalassa’s1982DevelopmentStrategiesinSemi-IndustrialEconomies,citedinEdwards.BalassaindicatesthatKrueger’sresultsareprimarilydeterminedby“aninadequateclassificationoftraderegimes.”Balsassanotesthistobethe

6、resultofKrueger’sinitialNBERreportthatsolelyconcentratesonquantitativerestrictionsoftrade,whiledisregardingtheeffectoftariffs,whichBalassaarguestobeamorerigorousmethodofprotection.Amongotherstudiesexploringtherelationshipbetweengrowthinexportsandeconomicperformancecitedin

7、Edwards’swork,istheMichaelyetal.projectaddressedearlierinhisreview.Theeffectsoftradepolicyongrowthareassessedthroughaclassificationoftraderegimesbetweenliberalizersandnonliberalizers,determinedbydummyvariablesMichaelyestablishesintheprocess.Findingsofhisstudy,consistentwi

8、thpopularbelief,indicatethateconomiesof“intense[and]sustainedliberalizationshaveoutperformedthos