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2、sincomputecapabilityCorrelationMapsGenerationofCorrelationMapsCorrelationMap–a2-DviewofaResultsDatageneratedfromMonteCarloAnalysisIncorporatesVariabilityandUncertaintyUpdatedLatinHypercubesamplingIndependentoftheNumberofVariablesResultswith100runsDoesNotViolatePhysicsNoassumptionsofcontinuity“N
3、otelegant,onlygivestherightanswers.”CorrelationMapstoUnderstandCause&EffectInputVariablesOutputVariablesRanksinputvariablesandoutputresponsesbycorrelationlevelFollowsMIT-developedDesignStructureMatrixmodelformatFiltersVariablesBasedonCorrelationLevelUpperright–positivecorrelationLowerleft–negat
4、ivecorrelationACorrelationMapMetaModelofDesignAlternativesCorrelationMap:-IncludesAllResults-HighlightsKeyVariablesStochasticSimulationTemplate100MCSrunsGenerationofCorrelationMapsMonteCarloAnalysisSolution:Establishtolerancesfortheinputanddesignvariables.Measurethesystem’sresponseinstatistical
5、terms.SourcesofVariabilityMaterialPropertiesLoadsBoundaryandinitialconditionsGeometryimperfectionsAssemblyimperfectionsSolverComputer(round-off,truncation,etc.)Engineer(choiceofelementtype,algorithm,meshband-width,etc.)x1x2x3y1y2TheFundamentalProblem…VariabilityStructuralMaterialScatterMATERIAL
6、CHARACTERISTICCVMetallicRupture8-15%Buckling14%CarbonFiberRupture10-17%Screw,Rivet,WeldingRupture8%BondingAdhesivestrength12-16%Metal/metal8-13%HoneycombTension16%Shear,compression10%Facewrinkling8%InsertsAxialloading12%Thermalprotection(AQ60)In-planetension12-24%In-planecompression15-20%Source
7、:Klein,M.,Schueller,G.I.,et.al.,ProbabilisticApproachtoStructuralFactorsofSafetyinAerospace,ProceedingsoftheCNESSpacecraftStructuresandMechanicalTestingConference,Paris,June1994,CepaduesEdition,Toulouse,1994.TheDeceptionofPreciseG