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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc32JWBT347/MckinseyJune9,201011:45PrinterName:Hamilton32ValuingFlexibilityInvaluingcompanieswiththestandarddiscountedcashflow(DCF)ap-proachesoutlinedinPartTwo,wedidnotconsiderthevalueofmanagerialflexibility.Managersreacttochangesintheeconomicenvironmentb
2、yadjust-ingtheirplansandstrategies.Forexample,theymaychoosetoscalebackorabandonaninvestmentprojectthatdeliverspoorresults,ortoexpandorextendtheprojectifitishighlysuccessful.Suchflexiblechangesofplancantakemanydifferentforms,andeachmayhaveasubstantialimpactonvalue.Astan
3、dardDCFapproachbasedonasinglecashflowprojection,orevenmultiplecashflowscenarios,cannotcalculatewhatthatimpactis.Managerialflexibilityisnotthesameasuncertainty.Companiesorprojectswithhighlyuncertainfuturesinvolvingasinglemanagementdecision,suchasbusinessstart-upswithhighg
4、rowthpotential,canindeedbevaluedusingastandardDCFapproachunderdifferentscenarios(see,forexample,Chapter34).Flexibilityreferstochoicesbetweenalternativeplansthatmanagersmaymakeinresponsetoevents.Forexample,iftheyhaveplannedtostagetheirinvestmentsinthebusinessstart-up,t
5、heymaydecidewhethertoproceedornotateachstage,dependingoninformationarisingfromthestagebefore.Forcaseswheremanagersexpecttorespondflexiblytoevents,weneedaspecial,contingentvaluationapproach.Company-widevaluationmodelsrarelytakeflexibilityintoaccount.Toanalyzeandmodelflexi
6、bilityaccurately,youmustbeabletodescribethesetofspecificdecisionsmanagerscouldmakeinresponsetofutureevents,andincludethecashflowimplicationsofthosedecisions.Invaluingacompany,flexibilitythereforebecomesrelevantonlyincaseswheremanagementre-sponsestospecificeventsmaychanget
7、hecourseofthewholecompany.Forexample,tovalueInternetorbiotechcompanieswithahandfulofpromisingnewproductsindevelopment,youcouldprojectsales,profit,andinvestmentsforthecompanyasawholethatareconditionalonthesuccessofproduct679P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc32JWBT347/MckinseyJune9,20101
8、1:45PrinterName:Hamilton680VALUINGFLEXIBILITYdevelopment.1Anotherexampleisacompanythathasbuiltitsstrategyaroundbuyingupsmall
