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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc36JWBT347/MckinseyJune3,201017:2PrinterName:Hamilton36ValuingBanksBanksareamongthemostcomplexbusinessestovalue,especiallyfromtheoutsidein.Publishedaccountsgiveanoverviewofabanksperformance,buttheclarityofthepicturetheypresentdependslargelyonaccou
2、ntingdeci-sionsmadebymanagement.Externalanalystsmustthereforemakeajudg-mentabouttheappropriatenessofthosedecisions.Evenifthatjudgmentisfavorable,analystsarestillboundtolackvitalinformationaboutthebankseconomics,suchastheextentofitscreditlossesoranymismatchbetween
3、itsassetsandliabilities,forcingthemtofallbackonroughestimatesfortheirvaluation.Moreover,banksarehighlylevered,makingbankvaluationsevenmorecontingentonchangingeconomiccircumstancesthanvaluationsinothersectors.Finally,mostbanksareinfactmultibusinesscompanies,requir
4、ingseparateanalysisandvaluationoftheirkeybusinesssegments.So-calleduni-versalbankstodayengageinawiderangeofbusinesses,includingretailandwholesalebanking,investmentbanking,andassetmanagement.Yetseparateaccountsforthedifferentbusinessesarerarelyavailable.Whenyouare
5、valuingbanks,thebasicapproachtovaluingindustrialcompanies,setoutinPartTwo,istherightwaytostart.However,ifyouwantyourvaluationtoreflectthecomplexitiesoftodaysbankingbusinessesandtoyieldinsightsintowhereandhowabankiscreatingvalue,thentheprocessofvaluationbecomesmore
6、complicated,astherearesignificantanalyticalchallengestoovercome.Thischapterprovidesageneraloverviewofhowtovaluebanksandhighlightssomeofthemostcommonvaluationchallengespeculiartobanks.Firstwediscusstheeconomicfundamentalsofbankingandtrendsinperformanceandgrowth.The
7、nwedescribehowtousetheequitycashflowapproachforvaluingbanks,usingahypothetical,simplifiedexample.Weconcludebyofferingsomepracticalrecommendationsforvaluinguniversalbanksinalltheirreal-worldcomplexity.TheauthorswouldliketothankBasDeelderforhiscontributiontothischapt
8、er.765P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc36JWBT347/MckinseyJune3,201017:2PrinterName:Hamilton766VALUINGBANKSECONOMICSOFBANKINGAfteryearsofstrongprofitabilityandgrowthintheU.S.and
