证 券行业2018三季报前瞻：龙头一枝独秀，分化持续验证

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1、1.上市券商三季报业绩预测：龙头一枝独秀预计上市券商三季报归母净利润整体同比下滑32%，中信证券一枝独秀，预计仍保持正增长。在1-8月母公司和投行、资管子公司的经营数据基础上，我们预测并加入子公司业绩，剔除子公司分红因素，预计上市券商整体三季报归母净利润同比下滑32%，其中，中信证券（合并报表）归母净利润同比增长1.3%，业绩一枝独秀。单位：亿元9M18E9M18E营收增速归母净利润增速营业收入归母净利润1Q181H189M18E1Q181H189M18E中信证券292.380.312.7%6.9%2.6%16.9%13.0%1.3%国泰

2、君安161.656.411.8%3.2%-2.7%-11.9%-15.7%-19.9%海通证券162.444.9-11.5%-14.6%-15.7%-22.7%-24.7%-26.9%广发证券111.842.5-21.2%-24.3%-24.8%-28.6%-33.6%-33.3%76.530.1-7.2%-18.3%-19.7%-20.6%-29.2%-27.7%中国银河63.519.7-11.7%-24.0%-28.7%-9.2%-37.9%-41.7%国信证券65.019.7-10.2%-25.3%-25.7%-29.0%-42.5

3、%-41.5%光大证券58.212.034.9%3.7%-12.8%24.6%-21.7%-47.2%东方证券54.99.1-8.7%-7.6%-22.2%-48.3%-59.2%-65.4%方正证券34.43.7-2.3%-22.2%-26.9%-21.8%-75.0%-72.1%兴业证券45.22.0-16.4%-18.4%-27.1%-46.3%-47.6%-89.9%长江证券33.75.214.1%-15.1%-22.8%-25.5%-62.0%-64.9%国元证券17.13.6-20.4%-29.4%-31.5%-31.2%-5

4、4.9%-59.7%东吴证券25.02.4-15.7%-25.0%-21.8%-81.0%-93.8%-70.6%西南证券17.63.341.5%3.6%-21.0%996.3%-16.9%-44.7%东兴证券21.88.3-8.8%4.2%-11.5%-8.3%2.0%-10.2%国金证券24.67.2-20.1%-17.0%-22.6%-4.7%-10.0%-18.1%西部证券14.82.9-15.1%-19.8%-34.1%-10.7%-42.6%-59.1%财通证券23.57.2-5.7%-16.1%-24.7%-6.7%-28.

5、8%-40.6%29.83.1-11.3%-2.7%-16.2%-31.3%-20.1%-52.0%国海证券13.71.0-20.3%-31.4%-38.3%-36.2%-71.5%-81.8%浙商证券25.95.2-19.7%-14.4%-21.1%-24.2%-23.9%-35.7%华西证券19.97.6-2.8%0.6%-1.6%-17.7%-6.5%-10.1%山西证券32.10.958.2%42.0%-5.5%-37.5%-53.5%-77.5%华安证券11.73.4-6.4%-19.5%-23.6%-4.0%-39.7%-43

6、.4%太平洋4.4-4.5112.5%31.4%-50.0%-105.5%-14.5%-618.7%12.71.66.4%2.7%-19.5%1.8%9.3%-55.3%第一创业13.02.420.2%-12.7%-4.9%0.6%-61.8%-20.6%中信建投76.825.75.5%2.7%--1.5%-8.7%-天风证券19.42.5--9.7%-10.2%--7.7%-12.5%南京证券9.22.1--6.3%---23.2%-可比合计1,696.3458.5-0.3%-7.7%-14.7%-10.5%-23.0%-31.8%表1

7、：9M18上市券商归母净利润预测，预计中信证券增速远超行业（单位：亿元）资料来源：公司财报，研究1.9M18证券业回顾：市场与上市券商经营情况1.1经纪与自营：成交降温，权益类自营考验业绩成交方面，9M18股基成交额同比下降14%，日均两融余额同比增长5%。7/8/9月日均股基成交额3925亿元/3240亿元/2791亿元，同比下降21.5%/40.7%/52.2%；上半年股基成交同比基本持平，但三季度成交低迷下，1-9月累计股基成交额同比下降14%。三季度投资者融资交易情绪降温，7/8/9月日均两融余额9001亿元/8719亿元/844

8、7亿元，同比+1.4%/-5.3%/-13.6%；1-9月日均股基交易额9580亿元，同比仍增长5.2%。中信证券、东方证券1H18机构客户代理买卖证券款占比超过50%，由于机构客户占比较高保