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1、NorthAmericaCorporateResearch30October2018USAirlinesQ3Wrap:Severalratingschanges,asmarketde-rates.Southwest/Americancreditupdate.Wecontinuetobelievethatatradingtrifectahasformedininvestors'favor.Thecaseforindustrymarginexpansionremainsthebestwe'veseeninfouryears.Moststocksarewithin10%oft
2、heirautumnallows,suggestingseasonaltrade-windsmayliftequitiesastheyoftendo.AmericanrecentlytriggeredourproprietaryD3030tradingrule.Wearehardpressedtorecallatimewhenfundamentals,seasonality,andaD3030triggerhavecoalescedsimultaneously.Butwecan'tignorethemarket'srecentde-ratingofnearlytwomu
3、ltipleturns.Giventhisphenomenon,we’vemateriallydiminishedourtargetmultiples.Inconjunctionwithourearningsrevisions,thisdrivesfourratingschanges:UnitedandSpirittoNeutralfromOverweight;SouthwesttoUnderweightfromNeutral;andJetBluetoOverweightfromNeutral.·Whathasn’tchanged–Theindustryremainso
4、napathtowardsmarginexpansionforthefirsttimesince2014;loweryr/yrcapacity,robustdemand,disciplinaryfuel,andnoimmediaterisktolaborcostassumptions.Furthermore,we'vedemonstratedthathistoryfavorsbuyingairlinestocksinSep/OctandholdingthemintoApr/May,andmostare<10%oftheirlows...withonlytwodaysle
5、ftinOctober.Lastly,AmericanrecentlytriggeredourD3030tradingrule.Atriplecrownofopportunity,inourview.·Whathaschanged–2019consolidatedcapacityis50bpshigherthananticipated,butstillroughlyapointbelow2018.We’vemarkedforcurrentfuel.ButSouthwesthasunexpectedcostchallengesandwe'darguethat'soneof
6、thebestpricingoutcomesfortheindustry,soourRASMforecasthasrisenslightly.We’vetrimmed2019earningsover10%exceptforSpirit,andintroduced2020forecasts.Fornextyear,we’reaboveconsensusforDelta,JetBlue&Spirit.In2020,wehaveaboveconsensusforecastsforAmerican,DeltaandSpirit.·SomemorecoloronRASM–Our2
7、0193.1%forecastispredicatedonarangeof1.9%to4.4%.Inascendingorder,SAVE,UAL,JBLU,AAL,LUV,ALK,DAL.·Pricetargetchangesareamixedbag–Ouryear-end2018pricetargetshavebeenreplacedwithyear-end2019pricetargets.InthecaseofAAL&LUV,ourAirlines&AircraftLeasing/EquityJamieBakerAC(1-212)
