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1、EquityResearch5February2018NorthAmericaAirlinesEARNINGSREVIEWKeyThemesfrom4Q17EarningsNorthAmericaAirlinesAnotheryearandanotherpaintestforairlineinvestors.Nonetheless,revenueupside,POSITIVEcostcontainmentandalikelyover-reactiontospecificgrowthguidancefromUnitedUnchangedkee
2、pusbullishonprospectsforthedeeplyvaluedsector.SincethebeginningoftheyearUSAirlinestocksaredownroughly8%onaveragerelativetotheS&P.DespiteanForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandimprovingeconomicbackdropandfavorablerevenueguidance,wethinkmanyinvestorsearningschangesinthisre
3、port,pleaseseetableonpage2.becamefearfulofUnited’srecentlyupdatedstrategywhichincludesmeaningfuldomesticcapacityexpansionforthenextthreeyears.WhileweseesomemeritinUnited’sinternalNorthAmericaAirlinesfocusonexpandinghubconnectivityandprofitability,themarketisclearlyconcerne
4、dBrandonR.Oglenskigrowthfromthefourthlargestdomesticcarriercouldprovedilutiveandultimatelyleadto+12125268903an‘armsrace’ofcompetitivegrowthinresponse.However,weexpectUnited’sstrategybrandon.oglenski@barclays.comtohavemarginalinfluenceonothers,asgrowthislikelytobecontainedi
5、nUnited’shubBCI,USmarkets.Inthisnote,weprovidedetailedanalysisoncompetitiveexposuretoUnitedaswellasrevenueandcostupdatesfollowing4Qearningsseason.MatthewWisniewski,CPA+12125265143Incontext,incrementalgrowthfromUnitedonlyadding25bpstothefutureindustrymatthew.wisniewski@barc
6、lays.comcapacityoutlook,hardlyenoughtojustifythemarket’snegativereactioninstocks,inBCI,USourview.WhileUnited’s2018capacityguidanceof5%camein100-150bpsaboveVanKegelconsensus,incrementallytheadditionsonlyequatetoroughly25bpsofindustrygrowth.+12125265019Spirit,JetBlueandAlask
7、aallscreenashavinghighrelativeexposuretoUnited;van.kegel@barclays.comhowever,onlyAlaskaisfacinghighercompetitionin1H18.WeprovidedetailedBCI,UScapacityweightedexposuretoUnited’snetworkonpage6,butsurprisinglyanddespiteMatthewPrestonmeaningfuloverlap,Spiritshouldactuallyseesl
8、ightlylesscompetitiveexposuretoUnited+12125265752inearly2018.matthew.preston@barclays.com
