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1、CORENorthAmericaAirlinesAirlinesDeepDiveon2019Maybe,justmaybe,2019canbetheyearforairlineinvestorsasrevenuemomentumshoulddriveaninflectioninmargins.WhileitcertainlyappearstobeshapingupthatINDUSTRYUPDATENorthAmericaAirlinesPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch15November2018way,werealizeplentycanan
2、dwillchangefortheindustry.Butweremainsteadfastinourconvictionthat,long-term,lowairlinevaluationsprovidedeepvalueopportunitiesforpatientinvestors.Abovemarketdemandgrowth,consolidatedForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.industryinputcosts,re
3、spectablefinancialreturnsandfreecashflowgenerationkeepusbullishonlong-termprospectsforUSairlineequities.However,throughanobjectivelens,theindustryhassustainedthreestraightyearsofmargincompression,creatingafairmarketnarrativethat‘nothinghaschanged’andprofitabilitywillbeultimatelycompetedaway.
4、Whileitiseasytobedismissive,theindustryremainssubjecttonear-termvolatilityinoilprices,whichwouldbequitesupportiveforearningsandmarginexpansionin2019,ifcurrentenergyfutureshold.Butwewouldarguethelargeropportunityisthepotentialthatinvestorsbegintoappreciatethematurityoftheindustry.Inthatregard
5、,2019shouldhelptoshapeamorepositiveindustrynarrativeasmanageablecostinflation,incrementalpricingopportunitiesandimprovedcashgenerationarelikelytodriveincreasedattentionforairlineequities.Airlinedemandremainsrobust,defyingindustryskepticism;weseetop-lineexpansionapproaching6%in2019,following7
6、%thisyear.Withplentyoffocusonindustrycapacity,wethinkthemarketsometimesoverlooksfavorabledemanddynamicsforairlines.Since2001,domesticUSrevenuehasoutperformednominalGDPexpansionby100-150bps.WithapparentstrengthinUSconsumerandindustrialmarketsheadinginto2019,wesuspectrevenueexpansioncouldappro
7、ach6%.Relativetoexpectationsforcapacityexpansionofroughly4%,webelievepositiveunitrevenueoutcomesarelikelyin2019.Apartfromfuel,unitcostinflationshouldscreenfavorablyfortheindustryin2019,butexpectinvestorattentiononlabordealsthatbecomeamendableheadin
