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1、ThePeople’sBankofChina(PBoC)announcedareserverequirementratio(RRR)cutof100bpslastFriday,partiallyreplacingitsmedium-termlendingfacility(MLF)andrepresentinganestimatednetliquidityofRmb800bn.ThisisthefourthRRRcutsinceApril2018;however,nointerestratecuthasbeenannouncedyet,whileweseenosignofsign
2、ificantrelaxationofChina’spropertytighteningpolicies.Assuch,weexpecttoseelimitedstimulationinthepropertymarket,whilehomedemandwillremainunderpressurein2019,giventheeconomicslowdownandweakeningemployment.WemaintainourEqualweightratingontherealestatesector.Neweasingcycle.Chinaconductedfourroun
3、dsofRRRcutsin2008-2018,including200bpscutsinSeptember-December2008,150bpscutsinDecember2011-May2012,300bpscutsinFebruary2015-February2016,and350bpscutsinApril2018-January2019.Thepreviousthreeroundswereallaccompaniedwithinterestratecuts(189bps,50bps,and125bpscuts,respectively),whileChinaalsol
4、oweredthedownpaymentratioandofferedattractivemortgageratestostimulatehomedemand.However,inthisroundofRRRcuts,nointerestratecuthasbeenannouncedyetandourmacroteamseeslimitedlikelihoodforthistohappenin2019,whilepropertyregulationremainsinplacewithoutsubstantialloosening.Wethusexpecttoseelimited
5、improvementinfundamentalsasthisroundofRRRcutsmainlyaimstosupportmicro-sizedandprivateenterprises.Weakeningdemand.Weforecaststrongpressureonhomedemandin2019giventheweakeningeconomy,asGDPgrowthmayslowdowntoa10-yearlowin1Q19,coupledwithworseningemployment.Wenotetotalincrementalhouseholdloansrea
6、chedRmb6.3tnin2016,Rmb7.1tnin2017,andRmb7.5bnin2018E,withtheproportionoftotalincrementalRmbloanssurgingfromthehistoricalaverageof31%in2008-2015to50%,53%,and45%,respectively.Lookingforward,weseelimitedroomforliquiditysupportofhouseholdloansgivenahighbasein2016-18,whilethepolicysupportmainlyfo
7、cusesoncompanies.Therefore,althoughwebelieverelaxingtherecognitionoffirst-homemortgagesandloweringthedownpaymentratioofsecond-homemortgagesmightbeeffectiveinboostingdemandinhigher-tiercities,itwillcastashadowonlower-tiercitiesgivenlimitedliquiditys
