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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria6December2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelSteelpricesstable,inputfactorpricestrendingupBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenby
2、macrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcost+41-44-227-3377supporttofadeand,thus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldToppicksimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). OurtoppicksareArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR26.20Bu
3、y1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(7-12%Voestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR49.22BuyFCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichSource:DeutscheBankwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusi
4、nessmodel.HRC:S.EuropeanpricesupE3Lastweek,S.EuropeanpriceswereupE3toE503(upUSD8toUSD598)andN.Figure1:HRCpricesEuropeanpricesweredownE3toE534(upinUSDtermsbyUSD1toUSD634).USD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropePriceshavefallenE2inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850USHRCpricesdownUS
5、D4;ChineseexportpricesupUSD1800750USHRCpricesweredownUSD4lastweekfollowingtheUSD40/tpriceincrease700650ofseveralUSplayers.ThepricegapwithEuropefelltoUSD51/t,whiletheprice600550500differentialwithChinadecreasedtoUSD138/t.ChineseHRCpriceswereupUSD1450400toUSD547.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS
6、.EuropeanpricesrosetoUSD51,350300250lessthanthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,withChinesepricesdownE9200NovMarJulNovMarJulNovMarJulNovMarJulNov(downUSD34)inthepastthreemonths.13141414151515161616171717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesdownE14S.EuropeanpricesweredownE14toE523(downU
7、SD12toUSD621).PricesFigure2:RawmaterialpricesfellE12inthepastmonth.N.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE575(upUSD5toUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD683).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%FepricesupUSD3/dmt;cokingcoal:pricesupUSD11150400ThepriceofFine
