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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria17October2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelFallingUSscrappricedragsUSsteelprices,EuropestableBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallorkeeptheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoe
2、sandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). OurtoppicksArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR24.63Buyare:1)ArcelorMitt
3、al,whichlooksattractivetousbasedon:strongcashflowVoestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR45.59Buy(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionalityand2)Voestalpine,Source:DeutscheBankwhichwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.Europea
4、npricesdownE2Lastweek,S.EuropeanpricesweredownE2toE516(upUSD1toUSD610)andFigure1:HRCpricesN.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE1toE542(upUSD4toUSD640).PriceshaveUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuroperisenE49inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850800USHRCpricesdownUSD15;Chineseexportpriceswerestable7507
5、00USHRCpricesweredownUSD15lastweek.ThepricegapwithEuropedecreased650600toUSD20/t,whilethepricedifferentialwithChinadecreasedtoUSD110/t.550500450ChineseHRCpriceswerestableatUSD550.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.400350EuropeanpricesincreasedtoUSD60,morethanthetwo-yearaveragespreadof300250200USD58,with
6、ChinesepricesupE31(+USD49)inthelastthreemonths.OctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOct1314141414151515151616161617171717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:N.EuropeanpricesdownE5;USpricesstableN.EuropeanpricesweredownE5toE589(downUSD2toUSD695).PricesFigure2:RawmaterialpricesdecreasedE8inthelas
7、tmonth.S.EuropeanpricesincreasedbyE3toE565(upUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD6toUSD667).USpriceswerestableatUSD759(alsostableineuroterms210500190atE644).170450150400130350Ironore:Fines6
