德银-欧洲-钢材行业-钢材价格追踪：钢材价格持续上涨

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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance20February2018SteelPriceTrackerSteelSteelPeriodicalSteelpricescontinuetomoveupacrosstheboardBastianSynagowitzStrongsteelpricemomentumwithscopeforfurthermarginexpansionResearchAnalystEquitiesremai

2、npricedforamargincontraction(vs.spot).However,asdiscussedinourEuropeanSteelOutlook2018,weseeseveralreasons(highglobalprice+41-44-227-3377levels,protectionism,demandandconsolidation)whymarginsmaycontinueToppickstostickorevenexpandfurther(whichwouldimplyfurthersign

3、ificantearningsArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR28.80Buyupgradesacrossthespace). Postthepublicationofthedetailsonsection232Source:DeutscheBank(whichwouldbepositiveforallUSexposedassets/players)thekeyquestionsare1)HowwilltheUSGovernmentdecide(decisionisdueby11thApril)and2)h

4、owmayotherregimesreacttorespondtoboththeUSandanypossibleredirectionofmaterialtrade-flow.OurtoppickisArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousFigure1:HRCpricesbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuro

5、peoptionality.1,000950900850HRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE7800750Lastweek,N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE7toE568(upUSD11toUSD704)and700650S.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE1toE551(upUSD4toUSD682).Priceshave600550500risenE51inthepastthreemonths.450400350300USHRCpricesupUSD18;Chines

6、eexportpricesupUSD2250200FebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebUSHRCpriceswereupUSD18lastweek.ThepricedifferentialwithChina1414141415151515161616161717171718increasedtoUSD240/t.ChineseHRCpriceswereupbyUSD2toUSD585.TheSource:TheSteelIndexspreadbetweenC

7、hineseandS.EuropeanpricesrosetoUSD97,abovethantwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD60,withChinesepricesupE10(upUSD39)inthelastthreemonths.Figure2:RawmaterialpricesUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/tPlate:N.EuropeanpricesdownE1;USpricesupUSD2455

8、0210N.EuropeanpricesweredownE1toE601(upUSD3toUSD744).PricesroseE7500190170450inthepastmonth.S.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE582(upinUSDtermsby150400USD3toUSD721).