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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria16November2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelSteelpricessofteningalittle-USscrapdownBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallorkeeptheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinu
2、etobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofadeand,thus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrosst
3、hespace). OurtopArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR24.84Buypicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflowVoestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR47.70Buy(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,Source:DeutscheBankwhichwebelieveh
4、asmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.EuropeanpricesdownE4Lastweek,S.EuropeanpricesweredownE4toE505(downUSD6toUSD586)Figure1:HRCpricesandN.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE541(downUSD1toUSD627).Pri
5、ceshaveUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuroperisenE24inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850800USHRCpricesdownUSD6;ChineseexportpricesdownUSD1750700USHRCpricesweredownUSD6lastweek.SeveralUSplayerspreparedthe650600marketforaUSD40/tpricehike.Thepricegap
6、withEuropefelltoUSD50/t,while550500450thepricedifferentialwithChinadecreasedtoUSD133/t.ChineseHRCprices400350decreasedbyUSD1toUSD544.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.European300250200pricesdecreasedtoUSD42,lessthanthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,NovMarJulNovMarJ
7、ulNovMarJulNovMarJulNov13141414151515161616171717withChinesepricesupE5(downUSD3)inthepastthreemonths.Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesupE2S.EuropeanpricesincreasedE2toE537(upUSD1toUSD623).PricesfellE28Figure2:Rawmaterialpricesinthepastmonth.N.Euro
8、peanpricesdeclinedbyE1toE574(downUSD3toUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD666).USpriceswerestableatUSD759(alsostableineurotermsatE648).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%Fepric
