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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria25January2018FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelWesternmarketpriceskeepmovingup;CoaldownBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontin
2、uetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcost+41-44-227-3377supporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldToppicksimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthesp
3、ace). Ourtoppicksare:ArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR30.10Buy1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%Voestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR54.60BuyFCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichSource:DeutscheBankwebelievehasmorer
4、oomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(8-9%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE7Lastweek,N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE7toE548(upUSD21toUSD671)andFigure1:HRCpricesS.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE4toE528(upbyUSD16toUSD646).PricesUSD/t1
5、,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropehaverisenE16inthepastthreemonthsandseveralEuropeanplayersstilltryto1,000950900pushforfurtherpricerises.850800750USHRCpricesupUSD28;ChineseexportpricesdownUSD4700650USHRCpriceswereupUSD28lastweek.Thepricedifferentialwith
6、China600550500increasedtoUSD195/t.ChineseHRCpricesweredownbyUSD4toUSD568.The450400spreadbetweenChineseandS.EuropeanpricesrosetoUSD78,abovethantwo-350300250yearaveragespreadofUSD58,withChinesepricesdownE6(upinUSDterms200JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanA
7、prJulOctJantoUSD17)inthelastthreemonths.1414141415151515161616161717171718Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:N.EuropeanpricesupE12;USpricesupbyUSD27N.EuropeanpriceswereupE12toE594(upUSD27toUSD727).PricesroseFigure2:RawmaterialpricesE16inthepastmonth.S.Europeanpriceswe
8、reupbyE6toE556(upUSD20toUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD681).USpriceswereupbyUSD27toUSD851(upE9toE695).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%FepricesdownUS
