麦格理-菲律宾-宏观策略-菲律宾2018年策略展望：宏观面改善支撑更强的营利增长

《麦格理-菲律宾-宏观策略-菲律宾2018年策略展望：宏观面改善支撑更强的营利增长》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectorvaluations2018outlook:StrongerearningsPEEPSchP/BROEYield(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)growthsupportedbyabettermacroSector2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EBanks15.722.21.7812.01.4Consumer26.010.63.8014.81.4ConclusionConglomerates21.014.12.5112.51.0Property24.915.83.1313

2、.21.4WehaveaverypositiveviewonthePhilippinesfor2018,forecastingaTelecoms13.610.92.7921.64.5Utilities15.73.92.7817.63.3significantaccelerationinearningsgrowthto15%YoYfortheyearcomparedPhilippines17.814.62.6213.71.5with10%in2017.WeseethemacrobackdropasfarmorefavourablethaninSource:MacquarieRe

3、search,December2017;pricedasrecentyears,withincreasedinvestmentspendleadingtostrongerGDPof7December2017growthof6.9%in2018asagainst2017’sestimated6.7%.WeareoverweightthePhilippines,ouronlyoverweightcallinASEAN.TopPhilippinepicksinorderofWehavesetayear-end2018targetforthePhilippinecomposite(P

4、COMP)preference–valuationsindexof9,500.Withupsidepotentialof16%,thistargetisdrivenbyabottom-PEEPSchP/B(x)ROEYield(x)(%)(%)(%)upapproachandwouldequatetoa2019EPERof18.3x.Thisupsidebroadly2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EmirrorsourforecastPhilippinemarketEPSgrowthof15%for2018.ALIPM20.819.23.316.81.1MEG

5、PM11.116.91.110.51.2ImpactBPIPM14.718.12.014.31.7MBTPM11.929.81.211.31.1BDOPM18.221.82.011.21.4Improvingearningspicture.WeforecastcorporateearningsgrowthwillPGOLDPM20.412.42.513.00.6accelerateto15%YoYin2018,animprovementonour10%estimateforRRHIPM22.213.92.210.50.8MPIPM14.40.31.18.21.42017.Th

6、isreflectsanattractiveearningsbackdropbasedonconcreteSource:MacquarieResearch,December2017;pricedasfundamentalprogress(asdiscussedbelow).Weseethisgrowthasbroadof7December2017based,withallbutonesectorgeneratingatleastdouble-digitEPSgrowth.Supportivemacrobackdrop.Thisgrowthwillbewellsupported

7、byaTopPhilippinepicksinorderofmarkedlybettermacrobackdrop,asweexpectstrongerGDPgrowthof6.9%preference–ratings,TPcomparedwith6.7%in2017EwithreliableconsumptiongrowthMktcapTPShpricecomplementedbyincreasedgovernmentandprivatesectorinvestment.WeUS$m(P)