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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria12December2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelSteelpricesandsteelmakingcostsbackontheriseBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevol
2、atile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcost+41-44-227-3377supporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldToppicksimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). Ourtoppicksare:A
3、rcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR26.79Buy1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(7-12%Voestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR48.73BuyFCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichSource:DeutscheBankwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunder
4、lyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.EuropeanpricesupE3–butpricehikecomingLastweek,S.EuropeanpriceswereupE3toE506(stableinUSDtermsatFigure1:HRCpricesUSD598)andN.EuropeanpriceswereupE1toE535(downbyUSD2toUSD631).USD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexport
5、stoEuropePriceshavefallenE6inthepastthreemonths.Yet,severalEuropeanplayershave1,000950900startedtopushforaE20/tpricehike.850800750USHRCpricesupUSD10;ChineseexportpricesupUSD6700650USHRCpriceswereupUSD10lastweek.ThepricegapwithEuroperoseto600550500USD63/t,whilethepricediffe
6、rentialwithChinaincreasedtoUSD142/t.Chinese450400HRCpriceswereupUSD6toUSD553.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.350300250EuropeanpricesfelltoUSD45,lessthanthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,200DecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecwithChinesepricesdownE25(downUSD41)inthelastthreem
7、onths.13141414151515161616171717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesdownE8S.EuropeanpricesweredownE8toE516(downUSD12toUSD609).PricesfellFigure2:RawmaterialpricesE22inthepastmonth.N.EuropeanpricesweredownbyE1toE574(downUSD5USD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShred
8、dedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550toUSD678).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%Fepriceswerestable;cokingcoal:p
