德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：税制改革的结果将有助于美联储的前景

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1、FedWatcher:TaxreformoutcomeMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistwillhelpinformFedoutlook(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.com

5、November13,2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:13/11/201716:53:46GMTResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti@db.comNovember13,20170bed7b6cf11cDBFedWatcher:TaxreformoutcomewillhelpinformFedoutlookSummary:Limiteddataa

8、ndneutralFedspeakdoTaxcutswouldgivemodestboosttogrowthAndcauseFedtohikeslightlymoreaggressivelylittletoshiftFedexpectations.3.0RealGDP,Notaxcuts3.6FedfundsDBView:WestillexpectaratehikeinDec,followed%,yoyrate,%by3in2018(Jun,Sep,Dec)2.5Withtaxcuts2.7+30bpFedspeakin2020Who**TakeawaysImpac

9、t*2.0+0.2pp1.8in2018Dudley[2]Dodd-Frankchangesshouldbe1.5made“withaparingknife,rather0.9Notaxcutsthanwithacleaver”WithtaxcutsReinforced2%inflationtargetis1.00.0symmetric,notaceiling2016201720182019202020162017201820192020Potter[3]QEbenefitsnotable,costslessNote:Taxcuts~$1.5tnbeingco

10、nsidered.SeeTrumptaxplan:Toughsleddingahead.Note:“Notaxcuts”isFedbaselinefromJune2017.thanfearedSource:FRB,DeutscheBankResearchSource:FRB,DeutscheBankResearchQElikelyneededinresponsetofuturedownturnsPurchasesof10%ofGDPFedGDPtrackersforQ4-2017Eventstowatchthisweekreduce10yyieldsby~50b

11、p%q/q,WhenWhoSetting/topicQuarles[3]FedshouldtakefreshlookatARregulation,tailoringrulestofirmsAtlantaFedNYFedDBEvansLeverageratioshouldserveas5CommunicationchallengesYellenbackstop,notprimarycapitalruleNov-14Harker[3]BacksDechike,steadyhikes4BullardUSEconomy&MonetaryPolicythereaft

12、er.‘18hingesoninflationBosticEcon.Outlook,MonetaryPolicyScepticalaboutPhillipsCurve3Nov-15EvansEuropeanConferenceFedresearch2MesterThefutureofMonetaryPolicyTitle/TakeawaysImpact*Nov16KaplanModeratedQ&Asession“Theperennialproblemofpredictingpotential”101-Sep-1716-Sep-1701-Oct-171