德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：制造业指数、就业数据并无太大改善

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1、FedWatcher:Minutes,ISMsandMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistpayrollsdolittletomovetheneedle(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattop

5、adhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary08,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:08/01/201816:40:00GMTDistributedon:08/01/201816:18:00GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、mat

8、thew.luzzetti@db.comJanuary08,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Minutes,ISMsandpayrollsdolittletomovetheneedleSummary:Decemberminuteslargelyuneventful.Limitedevidenceofpickupinwagegrowth,JobsgrowthmissedexpectationsbutaboveJobsdataslightlydisappointingb

9、utdonotalterFeddespitesolidDecprintpaceneededtokeepunemploymentsteadyoutlook.%TotalprivateaveragehourlyChangem/m(ls)3.2earnings400NFP,DBView:Unchanged:4hikesin‘18(firstinMarch)1,000s12MonthMA(rs)350followedby3in’192.8300Fedspeak2.4250Who**TakeawaysImpa

10、ct*200FOMCLowinflationstillhotlydebated;2.0150minutessubtlehintsofhawkishtilt(this6m%chgAR%y/ymaynotfullyreflectsoftNovCPI)1.6100Littleworryfrommostaboutflat50yieldcurve1.2Neededtokeepunemploymentsteady0Growthrevisionsmaynotfully2014201520162017201

11、812131415161718reflectlatesttaxplanSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchHarker[3]Expects2hikesin2018WorriedaboutinflationbutseesitFedGDPtrackersforQ4–2017Eventstowatchthisweekrisingabovetargetin

12、2019%q/q,AtlFed:2.7%WhenWhoSetting/topicBullard[1]Taxcutscould“lightafire”incapex,boostproductivityandliftARNYFed:4.0%BosticEconomicoutlookDB:2.8%economyfromlowgrowthregime5Jan-08WilliamsInflationTargetingConferencePhillipscurveisbroken,inpartduet

13、oinflationtargetingRosengrenInflationTargetingConference4Taylor-typerulescouldfurtherJan-09KashkariModeratedpanelhelpguideexpectations3EvansEconomyandmonetarypolicyMester[4]Studyofotherpolicyframeworksoutlookislonger-runtopic2Jan-