德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：核心通胀难题将在2018继续下去？

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1、MatthewLuzzettiFedWatcher:CoreinflationSeniorEconomistconundrumtocontinuein2018?(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comDecem

5、ber18,2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:18/12/201715:30:00GMTDistributedon:18/12/201713:57:00GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti@db.comDecember18,20177T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Coreinflationconun

8、drumtocontinuein2018?Summary:CoreCPIinflationmissedtodownsideCoreCPImissedexpectations,asseveralSomeevidenceoffirmerinflationfromFed'sagain.Feddeliveredanotherratehikeasexpected;categoriesfellsharplyalternativegaugessignalisthatinflationwillbekeytoratetrajectoryin’18%m/mSecond%m/mDBView:Ou

9、rrecentlyrevisedviewisunchanged:four1.5ApparellargestClevelandFedtrimmedmeanratehikesin2018(firstinMarch)Physicians'servicesdecline0.4ClevelandFedmedian1.0onrecordCoreCPIFedspeak0.30.5Who**TakeawaysImpact*0.2Raisedrates25bpasexpected0.00.1Mediandotunchangedexceptforhigherdotin2020-0.50.0

10、UpgradedgrowthandunemploymentFOMCforecasts,inpartduetotaxplan,but-1.0-0.1meetinglittlechangetoinflationSharpestdeclinesince1998Modestlydovishbecausetheydidnot-1.5-0.2raisedotsbuthavebuiltinoptimism20122013201420152016201720182015201620172018ongrowthandinflationSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,

11、DeutscheBankResearchSource:FRBCleveland,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchDBrecapEvans[2]DissentwasaclosecallNYFedinflationgaugesignalsfirmercoreWorriedaboutmorepersistentinflationnextyearFedGDPtrackersforQ4–2017disinflationaryforces,slippingFulldataunderlyinginflationgauge%q/q,At

12、lFed:3.3%inflationexpectations%y/ymeasure(15mlead,ls)ARNYFed:4.0%Credibilityof2%symmetrictargetatCoreCPI(rs)5DB:2.8%riskfromratehikeswithlowinflation53.0Correlation=0.73Fedresearch42.54Title/TakeawaysImpact*322.0“Politicalpolarizationinconsumerexpectations”3