德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：尽管工资增长乏力，美联储仍努力提升利率

《德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：尽管工资增长乏力，美联储仍努力提升利率》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、MatthewLuzzettiFedWatcher:FedontracktoraiseSeniorEconomistratesdespitetepidwagegrowth(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavi

5、k.chattopadhyay@db.comDecember11,2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:11/12/201715:15:00GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti@db.comDecember11,20177T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Fedo

8、ntracktoraiseratesdespitetepidwagegrowthSummary:AmixedjobsreportduetosoftwageSolidgrowthinhoursworkedpointstostrongButpuzzleoftightlabormarketandtepidgrowthandFedblackout-inducedsilencedidlittletogrowthmomentumwagegrowthpersistsshiftFedviews.4%y/yTotalprivateaggregate

9、weeklyhours%Unemploymentrate(ls)%,y/yDBView:Ourrecentlyrevisedviewisunchanged:rateindex7Averagehourlyearnings(rs)3.0hikethisweekfollowedby4in20183Fedspeak62.6Who**TakeawaysImpact*2NothingtoreportwiththeFedinitsblackoutperiod.52.21FedresearchTitle/TakeawaysImpact*041.

10、81314151614151617DB:“WhattoexpectfromtheDecemberFOMCSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchmeeting”FedshouldraiseratesasiswidelyexpectedMediandotfor2018likelytostayat3hikesButsignalshouldbethatFedremainsontrackF

11、edGDPtrackersforQ4-2017Eventstowatchthisweektotightenonceperquarter%q/q,AtlFed:2.9%WhenWhoSetting/topic“Howmuchispricedin?MarketexpectationsforARNYFed:3.9%FOMCratedecisionFOMCratehikesfromdifferentangles”DB:2.8%Dec13Expectationsforapolicyrateincreasevary5YellenPos

12、tFOMCpressconferencemeaningfullyinrun-uptoeachhike4“TheNewYorkFedDSGEModelForecast-November2017”3InflationisunlikelytorecoversubstantiallyoverthenextfewyearsNeutralfedfundsrate(r-star)shouldrise2sharplynextyearandexceed1%in20191“Taxonomyofglobalrisk,uncertainty,and

13、02-Oct-201726-Oct-201717-Nov-201708-Dec-2017volatilitymeasures”Source:FRBATL,FRBNY,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchRevie