德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：通胀上扬将美联储风险推高

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1、FedWatcher:InflationupticktiltsMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistFedriskstotheupside(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comLauraDesplansEconomist(

5、+1)2122507583

6、laura.desplans@db.comSuvirKumarRanjanAssociateSuvir-kumar.ranjan@db.comFebruary20,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:20/02/201814:03:00GMTDeutscheBankMatthewLuzzetti

7、(+1)2122506161

8、matth

9、ew.luzzetti@db.comResearchFebruary20,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:InflationupticktiltsFedriskstotheupsideSummary:InflationdatastrongerthanexpectedCoreCPIinflationhasrisenmorebrisklyinSharpriseinPPIhealthcarepointstoajumpacrosstheboard,leadingustoraiseou

10、rinflationrecentmonthsinPCEhealthcareinflationforecasts:corePCEat2%end-18and2.3%end-19.%3mannualised%y/yPCE:healthcarepriceindexFedviewunchangedbutrisksaretitledtotheupsideDBView:Unchanged:4hikesin’18;3in’193.06mannualisedPPI:selectedhealthcareindustries4.0

11、%yoy2.5Fedspeak3.0Who**TakeawaysImpact*2.0Mester[4]Moreupsideriskstoforecastthan1.52.0inalongtimeShortrunr*torise1.0Financialmarketmovesfaraway1.03mannualizedhighestsince2011fromimpactingeconomicoutlook;0.56mannualizedhighestsince2008financialconditionsa

12、ccommodative0.00.00.25-0.5ppongrowthfromfiscal15161718070809101112131415161718policy,withupsiderisksFurtherratehikesappropriateatSource:BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchSource:BEA,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchpacesimilarto2017Eventstowatc

13、hthisweekSeesfullemploymentat4.75%;FedGDPtrackersQ1-2018has2.5%growthpenciledinforWhenWhoSetting/topic%q/q,ARAtlFed=3.2%2018and2%trendgrowthHarkerUSeconomicoutlookNYFed=3.1%Feb-21Powell[3]Fedwillstayalerttofinancial6DBforecast=3.0%FOMCMinutesstabilityri

14、sksPreserveessentialgainsin5QuarlesGlobaleconomyregulationDudleyPuertoRico&VirginIslandsFeb-224BosticBankingOutlookConferenceFedresearchKaplanTradepanelinVancouverTitle/TakeawaysImpact*3DudleyFe